Can divided European powers stop war?

In terms of population, the three largest countries in Europe- Germany, France and the United Kingdom discussed with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday to avoid long war in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump, who will join the attack against Tehran in the next two weeks, has decided that the discussion has failed with European leaders.

He (Trump) told reporters, “Iran does not want to talk to Europe. They want to talk to us. Europe will not help in this regard.”

Aragachi said Iran was not participating in the discussion in Geneva, but just to listen.

However, he added, “No discussion with the United States is possible until Israeli aggression is stopped.” At this time, a counter -missile and drone attack between Iran and Israel are underway.

The United States is the main ally of Israel and its main supporter in all wars. It is the only country whose significant military presence is in the Middle East and who can change the course of war.

Germany, France and the United Kingdom Iran are known as 'E-1' in the context of discussion. These three countries played an important role in making an agreement called JCPOA with Iran in the 21st.

Through this agreement Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program, in exchange for international sanctions. Now, in the context of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel and nuclear tensions, Europeans have been active again to find diplomatic solutions, so that the greater war can be avoided and the way for the 20th agreement can be reopened.

Greater action plan on the basis of joints of 20 (JCPOA)

Under this agreement, Iran agreed that only nuclear programs for peaceful purposes and remain under international supervision. Russia, China, the United States and the United Nations also played a role in discussion.

However, on May 27, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from JCPO in his first term as president. Then the E-1 (Germany, France, the United Kingdom) tried to sustain the agreement but failed. A year later, Iran also officially withdrew from the agreement.

Current context
“The European Union's Foreign Affairs High Commissioner to Foreign Affairs activities on Saturday (June 23) said in a statement that the EU is committed to Israel's security and is expressing deep concern about Iran's nuclear program.

Kaya Calas participated in Friday's discussion with the Iranian Foreign Minister.

However, Israel's war in Gaza has caused disagreement among E-1 countries, which has led to the unity of Europe's foreign policy; Although they all want to avoid another war at the doorstep of Europe.

E-1 countries' views on Israel
The position of E-1 (Germany, France and the United Kingdom) has been clearly distinguished since October 2021 in the Gaza war of Israel.

Germany has taken the highest Israel in favor of it. Germany and the UN refugee support agency UNRWA have refused to criticize Israel for indiscriminate bombings on civilians in Gaza. Israel has been accused of assisting Hamas from the fund.

Initially there was an Israeli, but after the Labor Party's victory in the elections last year, some position changed. This month, the UK formally banned Israeli right-wing national security minister Ben-Gavir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotraich 'violence against the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza'. Israel has called this decision “abusive” and “not acceptable”.

France is the most suspicious attitude towards Israel. Emanuel Makhon was one of the four EU member countries called for ceasefire in Gaza in April last year. Later on April 7, 2021, French President Emanuel Makhon announced that he would officially recognize the Palestinian state within months. Although their recognition is partial in the global context, it will be right at one time. France tries to drive other European countries in this way, which the next month, Spain, Norway and Ireland officially recognized Palestine.

What kind of impact can e-3 (Germany, France and the United Kingdom) have on Iran and Israel?
These three countries are the largest economy in Europe, whose combined gross domestic product (GDP) is about $ 1 trillion.

Among them are France and UK airline warships and deployed forces deployed in the Middle East and North Africa. They are also nuclear -powered countries.

Yet these military and economic forces are not enough to remove Iran or Israel from their national security position.

The real value of e-3 is that they are considered acceptable to both Iran and Israel, and they have the ability to work together with the United States.

“Germany, France and the United Kingdom have been trying to mediate for more than 20 years,” said George Tejogopulos, a professor at Nice's European Institute, and their attitude is much softer than the United States. “

“Now in the war situation, they are giving priority to diplomacy so that the conflict stops and the discussion begins again,” he said.

Will e-3 be able to mediate an agreement between Iran and Israel?
This would be very difficult, especially without the United States, considering their failure to revive the JCPOA (20 nuclear agreement).

“The main reason for the failure of the JCPOA is the Trump administration, Trump itself and the Israeli government believe that diplomacy will not work in Iran. So the role of the three European countries has been ignored,” said Tzogopulos.

Coordinating with the United States is also difficult for e-threes. Trump is currently ignoring his intelligence agency, taking Israel's views, saying Iran is making bombs.

Trump told reporters on Friday (June 23rd) that national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard had said 'wrong' while testifying. He said Iran did not make nuclear weapons and the highest leader Ayatollah Ali did not re -approve the nuclear weapons program.

“If Israel has evidence that Iran is running to make bombs, it needs to be shared more publicly,” said director of the Arms Control Association's atomic expansion, because no one confirms this evaluation. ”

“If the United States and E-3 work together, we can be optimistic but if Europe works individually, I would not bet on their success,” he said.

The possibility of Europeans's success is very low- Angelos Serigos, a professor of international law at Panteion University in Athens, agrees with Calci Davenport.

“Only America can interfere with importantly, but I am not sure whether the Iranians want it. For permanent peace, there is usually no military solution for permanent peace.”

He refers to the war of Yome Kippur of the year 9, which later turned into a Camp David Agreement and turned into a Detton Accord from the Yugoslavia war; Where the United States played a key role.

Will the UN Security Council find a diplomatic solution?
According to experts, no. Because China, Russia and the United States do not agree on the issues of Israel and Iran.

“The Security Council cannot solve this problem,” said Sirigos.

“Some of the United States, Russia or China will give it a veto. The main difference is between the United States and China. China has invested in Iran in recent years. They buy most of them from there; they send nuclear activities to Iran. China is the most associated with Iran.”

Russia has called on the United States not to invade Iran, as it is at risk of instability in the Middle East.

But Russia does not even have the power to stand by Iran, said Sirigos.

“Russia is currently running in association with the United States. They do not want to be involved. No power. So it is making something compulsory doing voluntarily,” he said.

“Right now, diplomatic efforts will control the argument of war and we do not know what the war will be like, or how much damage to Iran's nuclear program,” said Tzogopulos.

[লেখক পরিচিত ও নোট: জন টি. পসারোপুলোস একজন স্বতন্ত্র সাংবাদিক, যিনি এথেন্সে-ভিত্তিক কাজ করেন। তিনি ২০১২ সাল থেকে আলজাজিরার দক্ষিণ-পূর্ব ইউরোপবিষয়ক প্রতিবেদক হিসেবে দায়িত্ব পালন করে আসছেন। তার ব্যক্তিগত ব্লগ Hellenica পাওয়া যায় এই লিংকে: johntpsaropoulos.substack.com । এই ব্লগে তিনি গ্রিস ও পূর্ব ভূমধ্যসাগরীয় অঞ্চলের রাজনীতি, ইতিহাস ও সমাজ নিয়ে বিশ্লেষণধর্মী লেখালেখি করেন।]