Denver Broncos 2024 Futures Odds: Broncos Longshots to Reach Playoffs

Most sportsbooks see the Broncos as one of the biggest Super Bowl 59 longshots in the NFL in 2024.

The Broncos’ low expectations this season are understandable given that this franchise been below .500 in each of the last seven seasons, with no playoff appearances in the eight years since Peyton Manning retired after Denver won Super Bowl 50.

The good news for Denver is that the disastrous Russell Wilson experiment is now in the rear-view mirror*. The former Seahawk went 11-19 in 30 starts as a Bronco after signing a five-year, $245 million contract in September 2022.

The Broncos are turning the page at QB this season. They will start either rookie first-rounder Bo Nix, journeyman Jarrett Stidham, or former Jet Zach Wilson, who was drafted at No. 2 overall by New York in 2021.

*Correction: Almost in the rear-view. It’s important to note that even after Wilson’s move to Pittsburgh this offseason, the Broncos are paying him nearly $38 million in 2024.

Denver Broncos 2024 Futures Odds

No team enters the 2024 season with lower expectations from oddsmakers than the Broncos. The doubts about this team have to do with not only its shaky QB options, but also its difficult schedule, which SportsBettingDime’s Matt McEwan ranks as one of the 10 hardest in the league in 2024.

The Broncos take on every other team in the AFC West twice, as well as all four teams in both the AFC North and the NFC South. They also have some tough games outside their assigned divisions, with road games against Seattle in Week 1 and the Jets in Week 4, plus a home game against the Colts in Week 15.

Read more from Newsweek’s 2024 NFL Betting Preview

Denver Broncos 2024 Betting Outlook

Can Sean Payton salvage bleak offensive situation?

• PFF Broncos OL Unit Ranking: No. 15
• PFF Broncos Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: No. 30
• PFF Broncos RB Unit Ranking: No. 29

Whether it’s Nix, Stidham or Zach Wilson who wins the starting QB job in the Mile High City, this has the look of a unit that is in for a long season. The Broncos improved substantially on offense last year in Payton’s first season as coach, from a league-worst 16.9 points per game in 2022 to a respectable 21 points per game in 2023.

But with Russell Wilson gone and WR Jerry Jeudy also out of the mix, the “most proven” player on this offense might be WR Courtland Sutton. He is coming off a 10-TD season, but he entered 2023 with 14 career TD catches in his first five years in Denver.

The Broncos No. 2 receiver is Tim Patrick, who was solid in 2020 and 2021 but missed all of 2022 and 2023 due to injuries. Denver other’s projected starting WR, Josh Reynolds, has averaged just over 30 catches per season throughout his seven-year career.

Starting RB Javonte Williams looked like a future star as a rookie in 2021, with 903 yards rushing, but missed most of 2022 and was ineffective a year ago, gaining just 3.6 yards per carry on 217 attempts. RB Jaleel McLaughlin made the most of his opportunities as an undrafted rookie last year, with 5.4 yards per carry on on 76 attempts, but at 5-foot-7, 187 pounds, he’s unlikely to be able to shoulder a heavy workload.

The O-line boasts a pair solid tackles in former first-rounders Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey, but the OL as a whole hardly figures to be a strength after allowing 52 sacks (a sack rate of over 9 percent) in 2023.

Has rookie Bo Nix won the starting QB job?

All three of Denver’s quarterbacks have had their moments this preseason, but based on his play in the Broncos’ first two exhibitions, Nix will likely be the starter in Week 1.

Through two games, the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has completed 23-of-30 passes (completion percentage: 76.7), with two TDs and no interceptions, and he’s also ran six times for 29 yards.

On a team with low expectations, it seems like a no-brainer for Denver to see what they have in the rookie this season.

Can Denver defense exceed expectations after rough 2023?

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 31
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: No. 28
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: No. 16

Let’s start with the positives on the Denver defense.

Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best young corner in the league. He’s been so good, in fact, that his interception numbers have been low the last two years. He recorded two picks in 2022 in an All-Pro season and just one as a Pro Bowler in 2023 largely because of how unwilling opposing quarterbacks are to test him.

But beyond Surtain II, this defense lacks players who are going to concern opposing offensive coordinators.

Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons’ exit via free agency last spring is a big loss in the defensive backfield. The Broncos also lost veteran starting linebacker Josey Jewell, who finished No. 2 on the team in tackles last year, to Carolina in free agency.

Denver Broncos 2024 Best Bets

Broncos win total under: 5.5 (best odds: +120 at Caesars)

Don’t let the impressive performances by the offense this preseason fool you.

Assuming it’s Nix who starts*, Denver is going to struggle given what it has at running back, wide receiver, defensive line and linebacker.

It’s almost impossible to succeed as a rookie quarterback in the NFL even in ideal circumstances, and Nix’s are far from favorable. The price at Caesars on Denver going under 5.5 wins offers a ton of value.

*Stidham or Wilson winning the starting QB job is unlikely to change this team’s prospects.

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