Donald Trump’s Election Odds Slip After DNC

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning back the White House have decreased following the Democratic National Convention (DNC), according to bookmakers.

Predictive betting website Polymarket listed Trump as a 53 percent to 46 percent favorite over Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday when she officially accepted the Democratic nomination on the final day of the DNC.

Odds on the site have fluctuated in recent weeks, with both candidates enjoying leads at different points. Harris had a slight 50 percent to 48 percent edge over Trump when the convention began on Monday.

On Friday, the Democratic nominee was still listed as the underdog, but had cut into Trump’s lead, leaving him with a 50 percent to 49 percent advantage at the time of publication.

Both nominees were tied at 49 percent each earlier in the day, but Trump regained a small lead following independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement that he was suspending his 2024 presidential campaign and endorsing the former president.

Newsweek has reached out for comment to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Friday.

Meanwhile, on rival betting website Betonline.ag, Harris had a small lead on Friday after being tied with Trump earlier in the week. The site listed Harris as a -115 favorite, with Trump just behind her at -105.

In an email sent to Newsweek on Tuesday, when both candidates were listed at -110, the company explained that “steady betting on Trump over the past two days has pulled the numbers back to even.”

The degree to which betting odds reflect the actual state of an election is unclear. Trump was listed as a significantly stronger favorite against President Joe Biden who dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris on July 21.

However, other indicators suggest that the Harris campaign currently has the momentum over her opponent.

The vice president has reportedly raised a record-breaking $500 million for her campaign in just four weeks, while her approval ratings recently improved significantly. Betting odds also seemingly have only a loose relationship with current polling numbers.

An average of recent national election polls compiled by polling website FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with her largest-ever lead over Trump at the time of publication on Friday, with the vice president holding a 3.7 percent advantage over the former president.

Polling averages of several key battleground states also showed Harris leading Trump on Friday. The Democratic nominee had a 1.8 percent lead over the Republican in Pennsylvania, a 3.4 percent lead in Michigan and a 3.8 percent lead in Wisconsin—”Rust Belt” states that would likely deliver her the presidency if she is able to keep her leads.

Harris also had a 1.4 percent lead over Trump in Arizona, a 0.7 percent lead in Nevada and a tiny 0.2 percent lead in North Carolina. In Georgia, a state Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020, Trump had also lost ground to Harris, but was maintaining an average 0.4 percent lead as of Friday.