Kamala Harris’ Polling Lead is Growing. It Will Likely Get Better

Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead in the polls has crept up to 1.8 points, and could increase further, according to poll aggregator VoteHub.

VoteHub’s poll tracker shows Harris’ position in the polls has increased from around 45 percent to 48.1 percent since the beginning of August, meaning she is now leading former President Donald Trump by 1.8 points.

According to VoteHub, Trump’s share of the vote stands at 46.3 percent.

VoteHub tracks unweighted 2024 presidential polling averages from the most recent 28 days of national polls and most recent 60 days of state polls. Each pollster is given equal weight. When there are multiple polls from the same pollster, the findings are averaged.

This means that unless Trump reverses his fortunes rapidly, Harris’ lead over him is likely to increase in the next few days as older polls, in which Trump had a lead over Biden, are phased out.

Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, making Harris the presumptive nominee. Since she became the candidate, the polls have looked largely positive for Harris, showing she gained ground compared to Biden, narrowing the gap against Trump and erasing his previous lead over the President.

Every national poll aggregator now shows that Harris has a lead over Trump, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showing Harris has an even bigger lead over Trump of 2.9 points, a 2.1 point increase since July 24. Meanwhile, RacetotheWH shows her with a 2.6 point lead, while pollster Nate Silver’s model shows her with a 2.3 point lead.

Silver’s model also shows that Harris has a better chance than her opponent of winning the Electoral College in November, giving her a 56 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 44 percent.

However, some pollsters have predicted that Harris’ lead in the polls is not permanent, with Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicting in a July memo that there would be a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race was expected to re-energize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon.”

Neil Newhouse, the lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, told Politico: “Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint, and that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”

Mark Mellman, the lead pollster for then-Senator John Kerry, added that Harris’ lead is not “unreal” or “unnatural,” but it is “not necessarily permanent.”

“I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit,” he said.