Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 2 Best Player Prop Picks

In Game 1, we saw the Celtics, aside from a brief scare in the third quarter, dominate the Mavericks in nearly every phase of the game and win by 18.

Here is what we saw in Game 1 as well as the player props we like for Game 2.

Play 1: Luka Doncic over 7.5 First Quarter Points (-125) DraftKings

Doncic went under this in Game 1, but that is not something to scare you off of this prop in Game 2. He just ended up finding his groove later in the game as he ended with 30 points despite the fact that he barely played in the fourth quarter because the game turned into a blowout. Despite Doncic struggling with his scoring and shooting earlier in the playoffs as he dealt with a knee sprain, he has still gone over this number in 13 of the 18 playoff games so far this year, as he has been known to be a fast starter.

In terms of what we saw in Game 1, the way the Celtics played defense was to essentially not let anybody else beat them, and to not let Doncic completely control the game from a passing perspective as well. The Celtics took away all lob options on the pick-and-roll, and they mostly stuck to shooters, giving up just three corner 3-point attempts. The Mavericks were averaging over 11.5 corner 3-point attempts in the playoffs heading into Game 1.

Boston showed that it was fine with Luka going 1-on-1 and scoring himself. As mentioned in our article heading into Game 1, this is an excellent series for Doncic to score a ton of points against this Celtics defense. For those of you that missed that article, the spark-notes version is that the Celtics drop-coverage guarding pick-and-rolls means that they allow guards to score a bunch of points out of the pick-and-roll (fifth-most points per game allowed to pick-and-roll ball-handlers.) A lot of these points came from either pull-up or above-the-break 3-pointers, both of which Doncic is elite at.

He scored 30 points in Game 1, and that was despite the fact that he only shot 4/12 from deep. That type of volume is is not surprising due to the Celtics drop-coverage, and the guess here is that Doncic will be ready to cook early in Game 2.

Play 2: Kyrie Irving over 22.5 Points (-108) DraftKings

This is really just betting on positive regression from Irving, who had a horrible shooting performance in Game 1. He was 6/19 from the field and 0/5 from deep. After rewatching all 19 of those attempts, nothing about his shot selection was overly concerning, he just had an off game shooting-wise. Sure, maybe the crowd booing him just gets to him and he is in his head too much, but considering the big-game experience Irving has, it is hard to put much credence to that.

Those 19 attempts included a number of missed layups that he normally makes. Irving proved in the prior series against the Timberwolves that he can score effectively at the rim, even against Rudy Gobert, the best rim protector in the NBA.

Here’s what happened on his five 3-point attempts on Thursday, including two misses in a couple favorable spots against Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard:

• two legitimately wide open looks
• an open pull-up opportunity off a pick-and-roll with Kristaps Porzingis in a deep drop that left Kyrie with an easy shot that he just missed
• missed step-back over Hauser
• missed pull-up over Pritchard

Irving also just missed a bunch of pull-up shots or floaters in the midrange that a player as talented as him normally makes. In general, the Celtics give up a lot of points to guards who can drive to the basket and also run pick-and-rolls. While Irving doesn’t have nearly as high of a usage rate as Doncic, his over/under is a full 10 points below Doncic’s, so the books are taking that into account with his price

Play 3: Daniel Gafford Under 4.5 Rebounds (+135) BetRivers

We were on Gafford’s under rebounds in Game 1, a play that came through and cashed for us, and we are going right back to it in Game 2. In terms of Gafford’s role specifically, Game 1 played out exactly how we said it would, and there is still value taking his under rebounds once again.

The Celtics take a ton of jump-shots, and teams that take a ton of jump-shots are bad matchups for opposing centers’ rebound number. For context, in the regular season, the Celtics were the fourth-worst matchup when it came to center rebound props, and in the regular season, centers averaged the fourth-fewest rebounds per game against them.

The reason why? Boston led the NBA with 42.5 3-point attempts per game in the regular season. In Game 1, the Celtics attempted 42 shots from outside, right in line with their regular season average. Gafford only had three rebounds on eight rebound chances in Game 1, and all three of his boards came on the offensive end. Meanwhile, we saw guys like Derrick Jones Jr. with six rebounds, P.J. Washington with eight and Doncic with 10, while even Irving grabbed three.

This is, unfortunately for him, just not going to be a series for Gafford. Yes, he was valuable in the playoffs heading into the finals going up against teams who had centers such as Rudy Gobert and Ivica Zubac, who aren’t threats to shoot, or Chet Holmgren, who Gafford could just physically dominate. That’s not the case with this Celtics team, though.

He isn’t someone you want guarding the perimeter because he can’t move his feet as well as Dereck Lively II, and he also is not nearly as good making decisions on the short roll or dribble-handoff as Lively II. To put it bluntly, Gafford is just not nearly as dynamic offensively as the rookie Lively II is.

Because of that, Gafford only played 14 minutes in game 1 to Lively’s 18, and that was with Lively II being in foul trouble most of the game. Maxi Kleber (18 minutes) also played more minutes than Gafford. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Gafford play even fewer minutes in Game 2, making this a juicy under to take advantage of.

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