MLB Player Props: Best Bets for Monday (September 2)

While the pitcher he is going up against is not a typical home run type of pitcher in Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, Gilbert has struggled against lefties recently. In the last 10 starts, he has only allowed five home runs, which is a low number, but four of those five have come against left-handed hitters.

Gilbert is allowing a .225 ISO rate to LHH with a 48.65% HardHit rate and 31% line-drive rate, which are two bad numbers. As for the pitch-mix, Butler will see 4-seam fastballs (36% of the time), sliders (30%), splitters (14%) and curveballs (11%). Here is how the last five of those pitches have gone:

• 106.9 mph off the bat for a double (slider)
• 100.7 mph off the bat (4-seam fastball)
• 105.4 mph lineout (slider)
• 106.4 mph for a 428 foot home run (curveball)
• 109.5 mph for a 427 foot home run (slider)

Jarren Duran Home Run (+525) BetMGM

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET

While Duran is not quite in the same category as Lawrence, he has also been hitting the ball incredibly hard over the past week, and really it has been the entire month for Duran.

He has five barrels over the past seven days, which is tied with a bunch of batters for the fourth-most in the last week. He is also tied with the fifth-most HardHit line-drive + fly-balls (8) and tied with the second-most balls launched (5). Whether you look at the last month, last two weeks, or last seven days, he has been on fire, and he has a great pitching matchup against Luis Severino of the Mets.

Severino has gotten smoked by lefties over the past two months, with a 2.60 HR/9 and .246 ISO rate. Duran also crushes the pitch-mix of Severino, which mostly consists of 4-seam fastballs (42% of the time).

Duran has hit four home runs off 4-seamers from RHP over the past month, with an absurd 19.35% barrel rate and 58% HardHit rate. Three of them have come within the past two weeks, including two in the past seven days.

From there, Duran will see a sweeper 17% of the time, and while he has not seen a ton of sweepers this season, the ones he has seen, he has hit hard. He has only seen three total since June 30, and he did strike out once. But the other two were hit hard, including a 356-foot double that was 108.9 mph off the bat. The other was a 393-foot flyout at 99.5 mph off the bat.

Corbin Carroll Home Run (+600) FanDuel

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 p.m. ET

Carroll has been eerily similar to Duran in terms of how hot he has been at the plate, with almost the exact same stats. He is tied with Duran with eight Hard-Hit line-drive + fly-balls and five balls launched over the past seven days, but the biggest difference is that Carroll has seven barrels, which is the second-most in MLB in this stretch.

He is the only batter with seven, behind only Butler. In terms of the pitching matchup, he is admittedly going up against a good — but not unhittable — pitcher in Jack Flaherty.

Over his last 10 starts, Flaherty has a HR/9 of 1.88, which would be the worst in MLB if extrapolated out to all qualified pitchers, and is the seventh-worst of all qualified pitchers since June 21. In this same stretch, Flaherty has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate (fourth-worst) and a 17.9 degree launch angle (12th-worst). Overall, he has allowed 12 home runs in his last 10 starts.

The two pitches that give Flaherty the most trouble in terms of home runs are 4-seam fastballs (42% of the time) and sliders (27%), which happen to be two pitches that Carroll has crushed during this hot streak.

Over the last 14 days, Carroll has a 18% barrel rate and 55.50% HardHit rate against 4-seamers, and an absurd 50% barrel rate against sliders from right-handed pitching.

He goes yard tonight.

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