MLB Player Props: Best Bets for Saturday (August 24)

Yesterday was another tough MLB home run day across the board, as home runs were down league-wide, but thankfully the temperatures are heating back up, which means more carry, which (hopefully) means more home runs.

As for today, we have our three favorite MLB home run predictions along with a bonus honorable mention at the end. Let’s get into it!

Joc Pederson Home Run (+335) BetRivers

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox, 4:10 p.m. ET

We are going with Pederson today as he has an absolute dream matchup for left-handed hitters going up against Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. Crawford has the worst HR/9 in the MLB at 1.76, but over his last 10 starts he has been even worse, with a HR/9 of 2.66 in that stretch.

He is also much, much worse against left-handed hitters, as he has allowed 17 of his 28 home runs this season to lefties. Pederson is a batter for the Diamondbacks who is only in the lineup when facing right-handed starting pitching, which makes sense as he crushes righties.

His ISO rate on the year against RHP is .264, up from .174 against LHP. He has hit five home runs off righties in the past four weeks, with a 16% barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and .388 ISO rate.

In terms of the pitch-mix, Pederson has been crushing fastballs both recently and on the entire season, which is what he will see almost 40% of the time on Saturday. On the year, his stats against 4-seam fastballs from RHP are really good, with a barrel rate of 14.67%, HardHit rate of 61% and a .400 ISO rate. In the last two weeks, those numbers increase to a 28.5% barrel rate and 75% HardHit rate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+425) BetMGM

Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. ET

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the day off yesterday, so he should be nice and fresh for us today. While he is not quite launching the ball at a rate to put him among the league leaders in this category, he has still been hitting the ball somewhat hard over the past week, particularly against RHP.

He has six HardHit line-drive + fly-balls over the last seven days, and all six are against RHP, which he will be facing tonight. He is going up against Carson Fulmer of the Angels, who is not quite a full-time starting pitcher — he is yet to pitch past four innings in a single game — but that should still be at least two at-bats for Guerrero Jr., and he should be able to smash Fulmer.

Since Fulmer became a starter on July 8, he has a HR/9 of 1.80, and against RHH specifically it is 2.00. The most common pitch that he throws is a 4-seam fastball (27% of the time), which Guerrero Jr. has hit hard all year from righties.

Guerrero Jr. has a 12% barrel rate and 58.5% HardHit rate against 4-seam fastballs from RP on the entire season, and he has especially crushed them recently. He has seven HardHits against 4-seamers in his last 10 ABs.

Next up he will see a sinker (26%), which he does not hit as well, but after that is a slider (17%), then a changeup (13%), both of which he does smash. On the year he has a 10% barrel rate, 52% HardHit rate and .309 ISO rate against these two pitches from right-handed pitching. He’s going yard tonight.

Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+480) Caesars

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET

For this one we are backing a hot batter in Elly De La Cruz. He has been smacking the ball lately and has a great matchup to hopefully stay hot tonight.

In general, De Le Cruz has crushed right-handed pitching over the past month, with a 14% barrel rate and 60% HardHit rate. In the last week he has eight HardHit line-drive + fly-balls, which is tied for the fourth-most in MLB over this span.

Seven of those have come against right-handed pitching, which is what he will be facing tonight. He is going up against Jake Woodford, who has only made five starts this year but he has been hit up in those five starts.

He has allowed a HR/9 of 1.67, which would be among the worst in the league if extrapolated out to all qualified pitchers. The best news is that he has allowed five home runs, and all five of them have come off left-handed bats. De La Cruz, meanwhile, is a switch-hitter who will be batting lefty tonight.

Lastly, De La Cruz will see a sinker as his most frequent pitch (47% of the time), and he has crushed sinkers all year with a 27% barrel rate, 64% HardHit rate and .545 ISO rate. He will also see a cutter 19% of the time, which is another pitch that he hits hard. Over the last two weeks, here is how these two pitches have gone:

• 103.1 mph lineout (sinker)
• 106.1 mph off the bat (cutter)
• 101.4 mph, 364 foot home run (sinker)
• 101 mph off the bat, 393 foot flyout (sinker)
• 99.4 mph off the bat (cutter)
• 98 mph, 358 lineout (cutter)

Love matchup for De La Cruz to take one yard tonight.

Honorable mention: James Wood (+830) FanDuel

If you made it this far, you deserve a +830 honorable mention play in James Wood of the Nationals. Wood has been hitting the ball incredibly hard recently and gets a dream matchup against the Braves’ Charlie Morton, who has been getting crushed recently. Definitely worth a sprinkle!

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