NFL Week 1 ATS Picks for All 16 Matchups

Cardinals at Bills (-6) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Bills -6

The Cardinals could have a high-scoring offense, but the Arizona defense isn’t good enough to keep Josh Allen and Co. in check for 60 minutes.

Modi: Cardinals +6

While I am higher on the Bills than the consensus, I do think the Cardinals offense has a chance to be really good, so they keep this one close.

Patriots at Bengals (-8.5) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Bengals -8.5

Cincinnati got off to rough starts in both 2022 and 2023, but with Joe Burrow reportedly 100% healthy, I like Cincy to roll against Jacoby Brissett and a Pats offense that could be among the worst in the league.

Modi: Patriots +8.5

The Ja’Marr Chase situation highlights a lack of depth at wide receiver for the Bengals, while the Patriots defense is a unit I am high on. The Pats avoid the blowout here.

Panthers at Saints (-4) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Panthers +4

I’m buying the Dave Canales effect on Bryce Young and the Panthers, at least for Week 1. Let’s go with Carolina to keep it close against Derek Carr’s Saints in one of the uglier matchups of the weekend.

Modi: Panthers +4

It is hard to have much confidence in anything regarding the Panthers after last year’s disaster, but the Saints have an old and slow QB and the league’s worst offensive line. That is a team worth fading.

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Dolphins -3

Miami has been an early-season buzzsaw under Mike McDaniel, and the Fins should be able to squeak out a win and a cover at home.

Modi: Jaguars +3

This spread is a toss-up to me, so I will take my chances with getting a field goal on the Jaguars’ side.

Texans (-2.5) at Colts — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Texans -2.5

Houston is a road favorite against the division rival Colts, who come into 2024 as an unknown given how little we’ve seen of QB Anthony Richardson. At the risk of sleeping on the home dog, I’ll take Houston to claw out a win by at least a field goal.

Modi: Texans -2.5

The Colts are a team that is hard to get a read on with the unknown of QB Anthony Richardson, but the Texans are a team that I am predicting to win the Super Bowl, so it’s time to put my money where my mouth is.

Titans at Bears (-4) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Bears -3.5

I’ve given Caleb Williams and Chicago too much love all summer and preseason to turn around and not take them in Week 1. Even if Williams has some growing pains, the Bears D should make Sunday a long day for Will Levis and the Titans.

Modi: Bears -3.5

I spent the entire offseason bashing Will Levis, so, time to put my money where my mouth is.

Steelers at Falcons (-3) — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Steelers +3

This is a vote of confidence in Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers running game, as I need to see Kirk Cousins at full strength post-torn Achilles before I’m ready to bet on the Falcons.

Modi: Steelers +3

With all the hype around the Falcons, I’m going the other way. The Steelers’ pass rush against Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles is a bad combination for Atlanta, while the Steelers might get a QB upgrade themselves with Russell Wilson taking over for Kenny Pickett.

Vikings (-1.5) at Giants — Sunday, 1:00 p.m.

Everett: Vikings -1.5

Decisions, decisions, as we choose between Sam Darnold on the road for Minnesota and Daniel Jones for the Giants. This is one of the toughest games of the weekend to call, but I’ll give the slight edge to Justin Jefferson and the Vikes.

Modi: Vikings -1.5

It is hard to forget how bad Daniel Jones was last year, while it has been two full seasons since we last saw Sam Darnold be bad. The Vikings also have a huge coaching advantage here.

Broncos at Seahawks (-6) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Everett: Seahawks -6

Rookie QB Bo Nix was outstanding for Denver this preseason, but I expect a long night for him on the road against Seattle coach Mike Macdonald and what should be a much-improved Seahawks defense.

Modi: Broncos +6

Ah, the ex-Russell Wilson bowl, what a classic. Bo Nix might be better than most people (including me) gave him credit for, while the Seahawks have PFF’s second-worst OL in the NFL. Part of my betting ethos is fading bad OL’s, so I’m going with the Broncos to keep this one within a touchdown.

Raiders at Chargers (-3) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Everett: Raiders +3

With Justin Herbert likely at less than 100 percent due to a nagging foot injury and a crowd full of Raiders fans, the Chargers look like one of the least trustworthy home favorites of the week.

Modi: Raiders +3

The Raiders are not going to win a lot of games, but they are going to keep games a lot closer than people expect. Their defense is legit, and QB Gardner Minshew is fine.

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Everett: Browns -2.5

Cleveland will get a boost from the return of injured right tackle Jack Conklin, though the fact that LT Jedrick Wills will likely miss this game is (obviously) concerning. We’ll go with the Browns to survive a game that might be controlled by Cleveland’s Myles Garrett and the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons.

Modi: Cowboys +2.5

Risky business fading the Browns at home and backing the Cowboys on the road, but I cannot in good conscience get behind Deshaun Watson at QB, so give me the Cowboys to keep this within a field goal.

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Everett: Buccaneers -3

I like Jayden Daniels to have a big rookie season for Washington, but the Week 1 trip to the underrated Bucs is a difficult matchup for the Commanders. The Bucs will need some late heroics from Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, but they’ll get the job done.

Modi: Commanders +3

I’m all-in on Jayden Daniels, while also all-in on fading the Bucs this year with a new offensive coordinator.

Rams at Lions (-3.5) — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Everett: Lions -3.5

Detroit will have a raucous home crowd to kick off one of the most anticipated seasons in a long time for this franchise. A year after Dan Campbell’s team went 8-2 at home (including playoffs), I don’t expect many teams to beat the Lions at Ford Field this season.

Modi: Rams +3.5

The field goal makes all the difference here. The Lions are going to be awesome this year, but I also think the Rams have a chance to be good, and this game screams WR Cooper Kupp reminding everybody he is not washed yet.

Jets at 49ers (-4.5) — Monday, 8:20 p.m.

Everett: Jets +4.5

Let’s go with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ outstanding defense to play San Francisco tough, exactly one year after Rodgers’ and NY’s 2023 season went up in flames on MNF in Week 1.

Modi: 49ers -4.5.

I am going to need proof that Aaron Rodgers still has it before I bet on him, especially going up against the 49ers’ stout defensive line. It is also huge that the Niners worked things out with WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams.

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