Ravens-Chiefs SGP Pick: Our Favorite Same-Game Parlay for TNF

Ravens-Chiefs Best Same-Game Parlay

Best SGP for BAL vs. KC: Chiefs -3 + Isiah Pacheco ATTD + Mark Andrews Over 4.5 Receptions (+489 at FanDuel)

Below, let’s break down why we like the Chiefs to cover, Pacheco to punch in a touchdown and Andrews to have at least five catches.

The exact payout on this SGP is +489, which means a $100 bet would yield a $489 payout if all three legs hit.

Ravens vs. Chiefs SGP Leg 1: Kansas City -3 (-102 at FD)

Earlier this week, we explained in detail why we like the Chiefs to cover. KC -3 was also one of the ATS picks both myself and Matt Modi agreed on in our game-by-game Week 1 breakdown.

The reasons to fade Baltimore on the road include questions regarding the Ravens defense (yes, the Baltimore D coming off a dominant 2023 campaign has some questions to answer) and O-line. Baltimore’s defense lost not only a few key players, but arguably its three most important coaches from a year ago in coordinator Mike Macdonald and assistants Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson.

The Baltimore offense should be potent given the offseason signing of Derrick Henry and the talent reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has at WR/TE, but the O-line will be without three 2023 starters.

Even if it turns out that the Baltimore OL and defense remain solid this season in spite of all the turnover, the substantial changes make it hard to see a road upset of the Chiefs in Week 1.

Ravens vs. Chiefs SGP Leg 2: Isiah Pachecho ATTD (+115 at FD)

Asmy colleague Matt Modi pointed out in his props article for this game, Pacheco is great value to find the end zone at this price given how heavily Kansas City featured him near the goal line late last season.

Pacheco sat out in Weeks 14, 15 and 18, but scored TDs in seven of his final eight games of 2023 (Weeks 12, 13, 16 and 17 of the regular season, plus all four playoff games).

After substantially increasing his role in this offense from Year 1 to Year 2 (see below), we expect Pacheco’s role to continue to grow in 2024.

We’d recommend playing Pacheco ATTD at odds well shorter than +115, making this a no-brainer inclusion in our three-leg SGP.

SGP Leg 3: Mark Andrews o4.5 Receptions (+108 at FD)

Andrews was sidelined for seven games in 2023 (Weeks 12-18, plus Baltimore’s divisional round win over Houston) after injuring his fibula and ankle on November 16.

When he was on the field, though, he was heavily targeted, as he has been ever since Baltimore drafted him back in 2018. In 2023, Andrews started a total of 11 games, and he had five receptions or more just four times.

That doesn’t translate to a high percentage, but hear us out: he had two catches apiece in his first and last appearances of the year (he left the Week 11 win over Cincinnati early due to injury, and he was not 100 percent healthy in his return for the AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs).

But he drew at least five targets in eight of his nine healthy regular-season starts, and in those games (Weeks 2-10), he drew an average of 6.5 targets per game. His catch percentage (receptions divided by targets) last year was nearly 74 percent, and over his career, he’s caught 381 of the 563 passes (67.7%) that have come his way.

With all that in mind, he’s a great bet to get plenty of opportunities — and at least five catches — on Thursday night as Jackson looks to get reacquinted with his favorite pass-catcher.

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