Seahawks Futures Odds: New Coaching Staff Brings Intrigue for ‘Hawks

The Seahawks that we have come to know under Pete Carroll are now a thing of the past, as Seattle has a new head coach for the first time since 2010.

Carroll retired/was forced out at the end of the 2023 season, and the franchise brought in former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as head coach.

It is always somewhat of a jolt to the system when we see the same uniforms but a completely different team in terms of style, and that is going to be the case for the Seahawks in 2024.

Seattle certainly will not be the favorite to even win their division, as they are stuck in the NFC West with the Super Bowl 58 runner-up, the 49ers, and the Rams, a playoff team from last year.

Let’s dive into what the books are thinking of the ‘Hawks this season.

Seattle Seahawks 2024 Futures Odds

With a new coaching staff and uncertainty at the QB position, it is not a shock to see the books pricing the Seahawks at plus-odds to make the playoffs, meaning they are unlikely to make it to the postseason.

They have the ninth-best odds to win the NFC, just behind the Bears, and the third-best odds to win their division, behind San Francisco and L.A., which feels like proper placement.

There is always uncertainty with an entirely new staff, so let’s get into this team’s chances at making a run to the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks 2024 Betting Outlook

The Seahawks have one of the more intriguing offenses, as they brought over Ryan Grubb from the Washington Huskies to run their offense. He takes over as the offensive coordinator, but he is the one running the show on offense under Seattle’s defensive-minded HC.

Grubb ran a very successful and creative offense in college at Washington, leading Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies to the National Championship in 2023, where they fell short to Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. Of course, it is never a guarantee making the transition from college to the pros (see: Chip Kelly), and Grubb does not have nearly the talent to work with in Seattle that he did in college.

Here are the Seahawks’ unit rankings on offense, according to PFF:

• Geno Smith Starting QB Ranking: 18th
• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 31st
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: 10th
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 14th

Grubb goes from a first-round QB talent in Penix and the best OL in the nation at Washington to an offense with the 18th-ranked quarterback and the second-worst offensive line in the NFL. The biggest issue here, of course, is that offensive line.

While Geno Smith was not as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, but that arguably has more to do with the offense around Smith than the play of Smith himself. His big-time throw rate increased from 2022 to 2023, while his turnover-worthy play rate decreased (both stats according to PFF.)

Smith also played significantly better in the second half of last season, as he had a top-five passing grade and was also top five in big-time throws from Week 10-18 last season. His counting stats for the year did not look as good in 2023 as they did in 2022, but that mostly had to do with the offensive line, which took a massive step back a year ago.

Part of the pleasant surprise of the Seahawks in 2022 was how well its OL played, especially relative to expectations, but that group was brutal in 2023. It battled injuries all year, and the rookie tackles who were drafted in 2022 (Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas) did not make the necessary improvements in 2023.

This offseason, Seattle moved on from two starters from last year’s O-line. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and center Connor Williams are projected to start along the interior of the Seattle offensive line this year after joining the Seahawks in free agency. The battle at right guard between rookie third-rounder Christian Haynes and Anthony Bradford, who started 10 games a fourth-round rookie last year, remains unsettled entering Seattle’s preseason finale on August 23.

The Seahawks desperately need Cross and Lucas to live up the potential they showed in 2022 for this unit to even be average.

That is a bummer, because the Seahawks have a ton of talent at the skill positions. They finished the 2023 season with the fifth-highest team receiving grade, according to PFF, as they have an excellent receiving trio in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and 2023 first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

While Smith-Njigba disapointed in his rookie season, the expectation is that he is going to take a major step forward in 2024, hopefully offsetting any possible age decline we see from Lockett.

Overall, the Seahawks offense has legitimate hopes to be a top-10 unit, but it is tough to look past the potential offensive line woes, which are a death sentence for almost any team.

Can Macdonald bring similar success from Baltimore?

As mentioned previously, Macdonald comes over from Baltimore, where he led an elite defense in 2023. The Ravens finished last year with the best D in the NFL, according to DVOA, with the best passing defense as well. According to PFF, Baltimore had the third-best defense, behind the Jets and the 49ers.

Regardless of which advanced stat you prefer, the moral of the story is that the Ravens were significantly better on defense last year than the Seahawks. Seattle ended 2023 with DVOA’s 28th-ranked defense and the 29th-ranked passing defense. While the talent is not the same as what he had in Baltimore, Macdonald does have a decent amount to work with.

Here are their unit rankings according to PFF:

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: 17th
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: 16th
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: 7th

The biggest selling point if you want to believe in this defense would be that secondary. It is currently ranked seventh, with a good mixture of youth and experience.

The defensive backfield is headlined by young corners Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. Witherspoon is expected to make a leap in his second NFL season, and while Woolen did not have as many interceptions last year as he did as a rookie, PFF graded him as a more consistent corner in 2023. It would not be a crazy leap to say that the Seahawks could have a top CB duo between these two.

Outside of those two, they also have a solid veteran safety in Julian Love, who came over last year and did a good job solidifying the unit.

The rest of the defense is where things do not quite have the same upside, but Seattle will of course take league average-units over something worse. The D-line is the unit that might benefit the most from Macdonald’s defensive philosophy.

Macdonald is big on his DL playing with speed and ferocity, as opposed to filling gaps. So, we could see a big year from one more of projected starters Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu, and first-round rookie Byron Murphy II could make an impact as well.

The linebacker room was completely remade from last year’s team, as Macdonald brought in two free agent starters in Tyrel Dodson and former Dolphin Jerome Baker. The latter is coming off the best season of his career, while Dodson was a backup in Buffalo but played well in place of the injured Matt Milano in 2023.

All-in-all, the Seahawks defense could be a surprise unit in 2024 with the talent and new coaching.

Seattle Seahawks 2024 Best Bets

• Win Total: Over 7.5 Games (-144) FanDuel
• Seahawks to Make Playoffs (+180) DraftKings

The Seahawks are two years removed from making the playoffs as a surprise team, and 2024 could be a repeat situation.

It is admittedly tough to look past the poor offensive line, but we have seen this exact Seahawks team overcome that before, at least in the regular season, with Smith as QB. Outside of that, this roster is talented, and we are generally higher on Smith than the public consensus.

So, getting the Seahawks to make the playoffs at a plus-price like +180 is solid value that we will take advantage of.

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.