Ted Cruz Gets Polling Boost After Data Showed Tight Race With Colin Allred

Senator Ted Cruz gained ground against Representative Colin Allred in the latest poll of Texas’ Senate race following two recent surveys showing a tightening race.

Allred, a Democrat first elected to the House of Representatives in 2018, is running to unseat Cruz, a Republican who was narrowly reelected that same year. Texas has traditionally been viewed as a Republican-leaning state, but growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their blue-trending suburbs, have caused the Lone Star State to become more competitive in recent election cycles.

Texas Democrats are hoping Allred can run ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris to flip the seat blue in November, as Republicans stand a chance at flipping the Senate.

The latest ActiVote poll of the race shows that Cruz has gained ground against Allred since July, though other polls suggest the race is becoming increasingly competitive.

Cruz led Allred by more than 10 points in the poll, with 55.2 percent of respondents saying they plan to vote for him, compared to 44.8 percent saying they are supporting Allred.

The poll was conducted among 400 likely voters from August 13 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

An ActiVote poll from July showed Cruz with a smaller lead of just under 8 percentage points, with 53.9 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him. In that poll, Allred received the support of 46.1 percent of voters.

It surveyed 400 likely voters from June 25 to July 18.

Newsweek reached out to the Allred and Cruz campaigns for comment via email.

Allred, a former NFL star, was first elected to Congress in 2018, flipping a suburban seat previously held by Republicans. He has sought to portray himself as a more moderate candidate than Cruz but has faced questions about his stance on immigration. Meanwhile, Cruz has faced backlash over his stance on other issues, such as reproductive rights.

Cruz said in February that he is Democrats’ “number one target” during an interview with Fox News.

Other polls have shown the race as closer.

A Public Policy Polling survey, conducted among 725 registered voters from August 21 to August 22, showed Cruz with a 2-point lead over Allred (47 percent to 45 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, another poll conducted by YouGov, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs and the Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs showed Cruz with an identical lead (47 percent to 45 percent).

That poll surveyed 1,365 likely voters from August 5 to August 16. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.

Democrats view Texas as one of two potential flips, alongside Florida, though Republicans are still viewed as favored in each race.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”

Democrats are facing a particularly challenging Senate map, defending several seats in competitive and red-leaning states. Democrats currently have a 51-49 Senate majority and are not making a play for the seat vacated by Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, one of the most Republican states.

This means they must win every seat they currently hold, or flip one currently held by Republicans, to hold onto their majority. Polls show Democratic Senator Jon Tester, of Montana, in an especially close race.