Historian Allan Lichtman, known for his election prediction model “The Keys to the White House,” has issued an update on when he will make a formal prediction for the 2024 presidential race.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Lichtman said: “While the timeline could change, at the moment, the plan is to release the prediction after Labor Day and before the next presidential debate.”

Newsweek has reached out to Lichtman for comment via email outside of standard working hours.

Though some have questioned the reliability of his model, Lichtman became known as the “Nostradamus” of American elections (after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance) due to his track record of predicting the results in the last 10 presidential elections using the keys system.

American University history professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington on October 28, 2008. Lichtman believes he has the secret to predicting who…
American University history professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington on October 28, 2008. Lichtman believes he has the secret to predicting who will win the vote in any US presidential election and he has the record since 1984 to prove it.

Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.

In a previous interview with Newsweek, Lichtman said there were four potential weak spots for the Democratic Party’s chances of reelection come November, though also said a lot would have to go wrong for Vice President Kamala Harris to lose.

“The four keys I haven’t definitively called yet are third party, social unrest, foreign/military failure, and foreign/military success. It is possible, but not likely, that three of those four could fall,” he said at the time.

Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com