2024 NFL Picks: 5 Bold Predictions on Eve of New Season

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To start with the Baltimore offense, the biggest thing here is the offensive line turnover. The Ravens will be missing three starters from last year’s roster, which is a huge deal for a team that was able to successfully run the ball game after game.

They had the fourth-best offense in 2023, as mentioned earlier, and boasted the No. 1 rushing attack, per DVOA. Now, heading into 2024, they have the 25th-ranked offensive line, according to PFF.

Defense is where the Ravens have the biggest concern. They not only lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is now head coach of the Seahawks, but they also lost their top two defensive assistants — Anthony Weaver is now the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator, while Wilson was hired by Brian Callahan to run the Tennessee D.

That is a lot of brain-drain for a defense that was already likely to regress, as they had the No. 1 defensive DVOA last year while allowing the fewest points per game and recording the most sacks (60) and takeaways.

Given the likely regression on both offense and defense, plus a tough AFC North schedule, it would not be a complete shocker to see the Ravens miss the playoffs in 2024.

Marvin Harrison OROY (+800) BetRivers

This is a prop market that we did a deep dive on earlier this summer, so if you are looking for the full analysis, check out our Offensive Rookie of the Year predictions article. The SparkNotes version is that Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best value bet for the award.

Caleb Williams is the betting favorite, which makes sense as he was the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft and goes into a great position in Chicago, with Jayden Daniels as the logical second-favorite as the second QB drafted behind Williams.

Harrison Jr. enters the NFL as one of the best receiver prospects that we have ever seen, which is not hyperbole. While fantasy football is not everything, he is currently the highest-drafted rookie WR in NFL history for fantasy purposes, and it is hard to argue with that logic.

Reviews are mixed on Kyler Murray in terms of him being an elite QB that you can win at a high level with, but he has been able to sustain elite production for receivers in the past. In 2020, DeAndre Hopkins put up 115 receptions for 1,400 yards and six TDs, which was the only year he and Murray played a full season together.

Those types of numbers would not be completely unreasonable for Harrison Jr this year, as we have seen rookie receivers produce elite numbers in the recent past. In 2020, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson put up 88 receptions for 1400 yards and seven touchdowns, and a year later, the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase had 81 receptions for 1455 yards and 13 touchdowns as a rookie.

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Leader (+800) FD

This is something that Taylor has actually done in his career, back in 2021 when he rushed for an absurd 1,811 yards, leading the NFL by a mile. The next-closest rusher that year was Nick Chubb, who only had 1,259.

Yes, it has been three years for Taylor since that happened, and three years in the NFL for a running back can be three lifetimes, but Taylor is only 25 years old, and he won’t turn 26 until January. So, he is still two full seasons away from the dreaded 27th birthday, which generally marks a cliff in terms of running backs’ production.

It has been a somewhat tumultuous two seasons for Taylor, who spent most of 2022 out with a wrist injury before a contract dispute kept him out for the beginning of the 2023 season.

He also did not get the benefit of playing with Colts QB Anthony Richardson at all last year, as Richardson got hurt right as Taylor returned to action. That is the biggest selling point for Taylor to have a big year in 2024.

Running backs that play with rushing QBs are always a good bet, as mobile QBs take away some of the attention on the RB, making the back more efficient. Colts head coach Shane Steichen is known to scheme up the run game well for running backs, as evidenced by Miles Sanders’ 1,269 rushing yards in 2022, which was the fifth-most in the NFL.

Texans Last Undefeated Team (+1400) FanDuel

This is a strong play for a couple reasons.

For starters, the Texans are a team that we have high hopes for, as detailed in our article talking about longshot Super Bowl winners.

They are also a popular Super Bowl pick in general, as they fall in the category of “young team led by stud QB on a rookie contract.” The Texans were able to make upgrades around C.J. Stroud since they do not have to pay him like a franchise quarterback yet. So, that meant they were able to trade for WR Stefon Diggs and sign DE Danielle Hunter this offseason.

This also a play worth considering due to the Texans having an easy schedule to start the season. Here are their first six games and each opponent’s win total over/under at FanDuel:

• Indianapolis Colts (o/u 8.5)
• Chicago Bears (o/u 8.5)
• Minnesota Vikings (o/u 7.5)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (o/u 8.5)
• Buffalo Bills (o/u 10.5)
• New England Patriots (o/u 4.5)

While that is not a complete cake-walk, only one of those teams, Buffalo, is projected to have a winning record. For context, last year, the last undefeated team started 5-0, with both the 49ers and the Eagles losing their sixth game, so a 6-0 start could be all it takes to win this bet.

Jalen Carter to Win DPOY (+7500) FanDuel

As the final pick of the article, we had to end with the spiciest play in terms of odds: Philadelphia DL Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year. Last year, as a rookie, Carter ended the season with a total of six sacks and two forced fumbles.

That might not sound like a lot, but keep in mind that one of the best seasons a rookie defensive tackle has ever had was Aaron Donald’s 2014 campaign, when the former Ram had nine sacks and two forced fumbles. Jets DT Quinnen Williams, who is now a certified game-wrecker, only had 2.5 sacks in his first season.

Obviously, those are lofty comparisons, and we are definitely not saying that Carter is going to have the same career as Donald, but generally, defensive tackle is a position that takes a while to develop, and Carter had a rookie season that compared favorably to an all-time great’s.

Now, he is set up for success with a respected defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio who has gotten elite production from defensive tackles in the past. It will also help Carter that the Eagles have enough talented pass rushers (including Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff) that he will not get 100% of opposing offensive lines’ attention.

Admittedly, there is not a ton of precedent for second-year players winning this award, which is why this is priced at +7500.

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