MLB Player Props: Best Bets for Monday (August 26)

Now that the temperatures are heating back up across the country, that means that the home run weather is starting to turn back in our favor as well. For those who are not in the know, hotter temps means farther carry for the ball, which hopefully leads to more home runs.

As for today, we have three MLB home run bets to lock in. Let’s dive into it!

Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+300) BetRivers

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

Kyle Schwarber is absolutely on fire at the plate, and he is going up against a starting pitcher who really struggles against left-handed batters in Ronel Blanco of the Astros.

For starters, Schwarber is seeing the ball really well at the plate recently. He has at least two HardHits in each of his last three games, including three barrels in his last two games. It is good to see Schwarber barrel the ball up so consistently recently, and we all know what kind of binges he can go on. He has not hit a home run in the past week, but with the rate he has been hitting the ball, the guess here is that a home run binge is coming for Schwarber.

Blanco, meanwhile, has given up 20 home runs on the year, and 13 of those 20 have come against left-handed hitters in only slightly more at-bats (52% of his ABs have been against LHH.) That gives Blanco a HR/9 of 1.66 against lefties, up from 0.94 against righties. In the last two months, that HR/9 has increased to 2.65 as well.

He also throws a 4-seam fastball over 40% of the time as his most frequent pitch, and Schwarber crushes 4-seamers. He has a 60% HardHit rate and 11.50% barrel rate on the year, and over the last four weeks, he has an 18.75% barrel rate and 58.33% HardHit rate.

Next up, Schwarber will see a changeup roughly 30% of the time. He has a 20% barrel rate and 50% HardHit rate against that pitch over the last four months from RHP. He goes yard today.

Juan Soto Home Run (+420) FanDuel

New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

For our second pick of the day we will be targeting another lefty, this time Juan Soto. Soto will be going up against a left-handed pitcher in Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, we are not scared off of Soto, who quietly actually crushes left-handed pitching.

Parker has admittedly not given up a ton of home runs to left-handed hitters, but this is still a matchup that should favor Soto. Over the last four weeks, Soto has hit an absurd six home runs off lefties, with a 25% barrel rate, 45% fly-ball rate and .556 ISO rate.

The biggest reason we are on Soto is the pitch-mix of Parker, who throws a 4-seam fastball over 50% of the time, which Soto absolutely annihilates. On the year, he has a 35% barrel rate and 68% HardHit rate against 4-seam fastballs from left-handed pitching.

Four of Soto’s six home runs off lefties have come off 4-seamers. Below is how eight of his 13 ABs from 4-seam FBs from LHP have gone:

• 112.4 mph exit velocity (EV), 427-foot home run
• 105.1 mph EV, 406-foot home run
• 103.8 mph off the bat, 393-foot flyout
• 106.6 mph EV, 406-foot home run
• 110.1 mph off the bat, 413-foot home run
• 105.2 mph off the bat
• 107 mph EV, 339-foot lineout
• 112.8 mph lineout

That would be four bombs over 400 feet, another 393-foot flyout, and every single HardHit was above 100 mph off the bat.

Next up, Parker throws a slider 40% of the time, and while Soto does not crush sliders like he does 4-seamers, he still has excellent stats against them this year, including a 12.50 percent barrel rate and 50 percent HardHit rate.

Rafael Devers Home Run (+525) BetMGM

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

For our third and final pick of the day, let’s keep the lefty trend going and ride with another left-handed bat in Rafael Devers. Devers is lucky enough to go up against one of the most home run-friendly pitchers in baseball in Jose Berrios.

Berrios has given up the second-most home runs on the year (27), with the fifth-worst HR/9 on the year as well (1.55). He also throws more home runs to lefties, with 16 of his 27 home runs coming off lefty bats in slightly more at-bats against lefties (54%) than righties (46%). His HR/9 against LHH specifically is 1.70, up from 1.38 against RHH.

Berrios primarily throws a sinker (30% of the time), which is not a traditional home run type of pitch. With that said, Devers crushes sinkers. In fact, the last two sinkers that Devers has seen have been home runs, one off Merrill Kelly and another off Corbin Burnes, two good pitchers. On the year, he has a 14% barrel rate, 57% HardHit rate and .655 ISO rate against sinkers from RHP.

Berrios’ next-most common pitch is the 4-seam fastball (26%), which Devers has also crushed on the year from righties. He has a 14.71% barrel rate, 68% HardHit rate and .485% ISO rate off 4-seamers from RHP this season.

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