New Poll Shows Top 2028 Presidential Candidates in Swing State

A new poll by Emerson College Polling released on Friday shows potential 2028 Republican and Democratic presidential contenders picked by North Carolina primary voters.

Why It Matters

Early polls in crucial swing states like North Carolina have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge. Even with the election still a few years away, polling can offer insight into candidate viability, voter sentiment, and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.

North Carolina, often considered determinative in recent presidential contests, could offer a bellwether for national trends as both major parties consider their direction and platform for 2028.

What To Know

In the Emerson College survey conducted from July 28 to 30, of 1,000 North Carolina registered voters, Vice President JD Vance is leading the Republican nomination with 53 percent among likely Republican primary voters—well ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7 percent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 5 percent.

Vance jumped 7 points from a previous survey taken in June by Emerson.

In the Democratic field, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the top choice among likely primary voters at 17 percent, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 12 percent and California Governor Gavin Newsom at 10 percent. The survey shows 24 percent are undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, with separate credibility intervals for primary subgroups.

Harris, meanwhile, announced this week that she is not running for California governor in the next cycle, fueling speculation she is considering another presidential run.

In an interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert on Thursday, the former vice president said she thinks the political system is “broken” and does not want to be in it right now. She added she would always “be part of the fight” though.

Friday’s poll also shows that 40 percent of the swing state voters say their family’s finances are worse off than one year prior, 32 percent say they are about the same and 28 percent say they are better off now.

What People Are Saying

Political science professor at Columbia University Robert Y. Shapiro to Newsweek via email Friday: “The Democratic primary polling is much too early and all we are seeing is name recognition for past presidential candidates and ones in the news lately in a visible way. On the Republican side, DeSantis and Rubio are damaged goods as past losers in the past Republican primaries in 2016 and 2024. Vance is on the rise by virtue of being Vice President and visible when he echoes or advocates more strongly Trump’s MAGA positions and what Trump—and he—have done. He has not been defeated in any past major election so untarnished in that respect.”

What Happens Next

Major candidates are not expected to announce their 2028 campaigns until after the 2026 midterm elections, in keeping with recent electoral cycles.

However, the field of likely contenders is potentially taking shape as politicians such as Buttigieg, Newsom, and others make public appearances and pursue national media opportunities. Vance’s strong polling position places him at the forefront of Republican prospects.