Democrats’ Chances of Beating GOP for Senate Control Get Worse—Analysis

The Democrats’ path to retaining control of the Senate has become even more challenging, with a recent analysis revealing a significant setback.

Cook Political Report shifted the Montana Senate race from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican” on Thursday, as polls show Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester is now at serious risk of losing his seat to Republican Tim Sheehy.

Democrats were already expecting their narrow majority to shrink to a 50-50 split with the retirement of independent Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, as Republican Governor Jim Justice is likely to win that seat. However, they didn’t anticipate that Montana would also be at risk.

“Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been a political unicorn for nearly two decades, but in a presidential year with an even more polarized electorate, he is now the underdog heading into the final stretch,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor writes.

“This means that Republicans are now an even heavier favorite to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the result at the top of the ticket,” she added.

Former President Donald Trump is very popular in Montana, but so is Tester. However, according to the Cook Political Report, voters are increasingly aligning their Senate votes with their presidential choices.

While Tester is one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate and even voted for Trump in 2020, it’s becoming harder for him to attract support from Republican and independent voters.

“Tester’s current numbers are reminiscent of strong incumbents in recent cycles who have simply gotten dragged down by the undeniable partisan pull of the state, like neighboring North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp in 2018 and Colorado’s Cory Gardner in 2020,” Taylor writes.

Since August, most polls have shown Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leading Jon Tester, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight. The latest AARP Montana poll has Sheehy ahead by 8 points, with 49 percent support compared to 41 percent for Tester.

Republicans must flip only two seats to win back the majority that has eluded them for four years. With West Virginia’s open seat expected to go red, the Democratic Party’s path to retaining the Senate becomes much narrower if they lose the Big Sky state.

Democrats are still hopeful that they can hold onto crucial Senate seats in states like Ohio and Arizona, but the loss of Montana would mean they must flip a Republican-held seat, such as in Florida or Texas, to have any hope of maintaining control.

Political forecasters, however, see such flips as unlikely, given the current polling and national political environment. In Florida, Senator Rick Scott is expected to hold his seat despite a well-funded challenge from Democrats. In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz continues to lead against Democratic challenger Colin Allred.

While Democrats continue to raise substantial funds to compete in these races, the odds of winning in deeply Republican states remain slim. According to FiveThirtyEight polling data, these races are within the realm of possibility for Democrats but remain unlikely to shift blue.