Donald Trump Gets Surprising Boost From Independents

A greater number of independent voters in a key swing state have said they are now more likely to vote for Donald Trump following his conviction than be put off supporting him, a poll shows.

A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,203 registered voters in Georgia found that 21 percent of independent voters said they were now more likely to back the Republican in November after he became the first current or former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a crime. Another 18 percent of independents said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to vote for him, and 61 percent said it did not make a difference to their vote.

Georgia is a key battleground state that could determine who wins the 2024 election. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by more than 11,740 votes, meaning both candidates are keen to secure the support of independent and undecided voters to help them win the state in November’s rematch.

There have long been questions as to whether Trump, whom a jury found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records on May 30, being convicted would damage his latest White House bid, with the former president frequently accusing the hush-money trial of being politically motivated “election interference.”

It is now unlikely that Trump will stand trial in the three other criminal cases he is facing before November’s election, and the Quinnipiac University poll is the latest indication that his conviction has not severely damaged his campaign.

Overall, 22 percent of registered voters in Georgia said Trump’s guilty verdict made them less likely to vote for him, while 23 percent said it made them more likely to vote for him. Another 54 percent of Georgia voters said it did not make a difference to their vote.

Despite more independents suggesting they would now vote for Trump following his conviction, most of them (52 percent) agreed with the guilty verdict, with 42 percent of independents disagreeing. Overall, 50 percent of registered voters in Georgia agreed with the verdict in the hush-money trial, compared to 44 percent who disagreed.

The poll also showed Trump beating Biden by five points (49 percent to 44 percent) in a head-to-head 2024 matchup in the state and by six points (43 percent to 37 percent) in a six-way race that included other presidential hopefuls—such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who received 8 percent of the vote.

“In a key state that went for Biden in 2020, half of voters agree with the guilty verdict that made Trump the first president to be convicted of a felony, but Trump still has the advantage in the 2024 race,” said Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst.

Newsweek has contacted Trump’s and Biden’s teams for comment via email.

Elsewhere, 41 percent of Georgia voters believed that Trump did something illegal in the state’s case against the former president and several others, who are accused of conspiring to illegally overturn the state’s 2020 election results.

Almost one in five (19 percent) Georgia voters believed he did something unethical but nothing illegal, while 35 percent believed the former president did not do anything wrong.

When broken down further, 43 percent of independent voters believed Trump did something illegal, while 25 percent believed he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 29 percent believed he did not do anything wrong.

The 2020 Georgia election interference case has been put on indefinite hold pending the result of an appeal put forward by Trump and several others on whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis should be disqualified from leading the prosecution.

A three-judge appeals panel is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the motion to disqualify Willis in October, meaning the sprawling racketeering case will almost certainly not head for trial before the November 5 election.

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,203 self-identified registered voters in Georgia between May 30 and June 3. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.