India's foreign minister is going to Pakistan!

After almost a decade, an Indian foreign minister is visiting Pakistan. S Jaishankar will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in the middle of this month. India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal confirmed this news.

Earlier, in 2015, India's then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Islamabad to attend the 'Heart of Asia' conference. A few days later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore.

After so many days, India's foreign minister is going to Pakistan again.

External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal was asked at a press conference on Friday whether Jaishankar's visit was an attempt to improve relations between India and Pakistan.

In response, the spokesperson said, 'This visit is for the SCO meeting, nothing more should be thought of.'

A section of analysts also think that this visit is not that important in terms of India-Pakistan bilateral relations, but judging from the SCO point of view, the visit of the Indian foreign minister to Pakistan is quite important.

What will be the message of India's visit to Pakistan?
Professor Harsh V Panth, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Department of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi said, 'Pakistan's internal problems have not been completely resolved. It is not clear who is actually in the center of power there. Therefore, there is no reason for India to hold direct talks with the Pakistani administration right now. So it does not seem that there will be any major change in bilateral relations through this visit.'

But he also says that New Delhi also does not want a perception among India's 'allied countries' that the conflict between India and Pakistan is hampering the functioning of the SCO.

In his words, 'India would not want other SCO member countries to have the impression that India is reducing the importance of SCO in its foreign policy. See, if the Prime Minister himself had gone to Pakistan, a different message would have been conveyed, a different importance would have been understood. But the Prime Minister himself is not going, the Foreign Minister is going in his place. One thing is clear from this that India is not willing to engage in bilateral talks with Pakistan at the top leadership level.'

His analysis, 'Again the visit of S. Jaishankar is also sending a message that India is ready to play its part in multilateral forums like SCO.'

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson think tank in Washington DC, also feels that Jaishankar's visit is more important for the SCO than bilateral relations.

He wrote on social media X handle (formerly Twitter) that the decision to visit certainly demonstrates India's commitment to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) beyond its goodwill to improve India-Pakistan relations.

However, he also writes, although Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan is 'multilateral rather than bilateral diplomacy, its importance in India-Pakistan relations should not be overlooked.'

He explained that it is important for a Union Minister to visit Pakistan after a long time. He wrote, 'This is the first time an Indian cabinet minister is going to Pakistan after 2016.'

Rajnath Singh visited Pakistan as Home Minister in 2016 to attend the SAARC summit.

Former diplomat Rajiv Dogra has served as India's ambassador to many countries. He accompanied Rajnath Singh on that Pakistan tour.

Dogra said the foreign minister's visit to Pakistan was a laudable initiative on India's part, but “nothing can be said about Pakistan's behaviour.”

Remembering Rajnath Singh's visit to Pakistan, he said, 'At that time, the then Home Minister of Pakistan Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan treated Rajnath very badly.'

Regarding Pakistan's behavior, Dogra also mentioned Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto's visit to India last year.

He said, 'When Bilawal Bhutto came, the statement he made was not suitable to take bilateral relations further, so the discussion ended there.'

How can Jaishankar's attitude be?
Pakistan's then foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari came to India to attend the SCO meeting in May last year.

Amid strained relations between India and Pakistan, it was thought that Bilawal Bhutto's visit could improve relations between the two countries.

But just one day after the meeting, the foreign ministers of the two countries made harsh comments.

Now when Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar is going to Pakistan, how will he express his attitude?

In this regard, Professor Panth said, 'He is going to Pakistan to attend the SCO summit, not to talk about India-Pakistan relations. Jaishankar will emphasize on India's constructive role there. So I don't think he will highlight the bilateral differences with Pakistan there.'

He said, 'S Jaishankar's aggressive attitude is often seen when discussing problems with Western countries. But if you talk about neighboring countries other than Pakistan, he is a shrewd diplomat. The biggest example of this is Maldives. At a time when Prime Minister Modi was being criticized on social media and there was a lot of tension in the Maldives, neither the foreign ministry nor the leaders commented. As a result, India-Maldives relations normalized after a few months.'

Former diplomat Rajiv Dogra, however, feels that Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will succeed in improving relations.

He said, 'Our foreign minister is an experienced diplomat and leader. When he visits Pakistan, his attitude will be such that the ice between the two countries can be broken. But the meeting is of SCO, that should also be kept in mind.'

How will other countries of the world see this visit?
Currently, about 40 percent of the world's total population lives in SCO countries. 20 percent of the world's GDP also belongs to the SCO group of countries. Again, 20 percent of the world's fuel oil is stored in these countries.

In this situation, the whole world is watching what the SCO countries are doing. In this context, how can other countries of the world view the visit of the Indian foreign minister to Pakistan after a long time?

In response to this question, Prof. Panth said, India's aim is to project its role positively in SCO, irrespective of its relationship with China or Pakistan. India's role through this visit is clear that it is fully participating in the SCO and moving forward with a positive agenda.

He also said that India has given a clear message to the world that India will prioritize its own interests and look at relations with Pakistan on its own terms.

'Neighborhood First' policy?
Former diplomat KP Fabian sees S Jaishankar's visit as a step forward in the 'neighbourhood first' policy.

In an interview given to news agency ANI, he said, 'Neighborhood first policy is being revived. As you may remember, the Foreign Minister spent three days in the Maldives. He was the first foreign minister to meet Sri Lanka's new president. It is a good sign that he is going to Pakistan.'

However, Professor Harsh V Pant does not fully agree that this policy is being 'revived'.

He said, India has always followed the 'neighborhood first' policy. In his words, 'How do you stay away from neighboring countries? India has never shirked its responsibilities towards its neighbours, but Pakistan has never been part of the 'neighbourhood first' policy.

How important is SCO for India-Pakistan?
China, Russia, and four Central Asian countries that were part of the former Soviet Union—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—formally formed the SCO in 2001.

However, at a meeting in Shanghai in April 1996, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan decided to cooperate with each other in dealing with ethnic and religious tensions.

India and Pakistan joined the SCO as full members in 2017 and Iran in 2023. Now nine countries are members of SCO.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia as observers.

Pakistan has good relations with the two countries that lead the SCO, Russia and China.

Besides, the SCO is also important to Pakistan because of the Central Asian countries, as Pakistan hopes to increase cooperation in trade, connectivity and energy sectors in the region.

It is again an important strategic platform for India, which has built its connections with its neighbors on the one hand and Central Asia on the other.

Professor Panth said, 'Since India's connectivity with Central Asia is limited, it is important for India to maintain India's presence and role in the region through SCO.

Professor Panth said, 'So this visit should be seen from the perspective of India's participation in the multilateral forum and from a diplomatic perspective rather than from the perspective of bilateral relations.'
Source: BBC

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