Live Tracker Maps Show When Hurricane Could Hit Mexico

Tropical Storm Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before it arrives in Mexico later this week, with some meteorologists anticipating the storm to reach major hurricane strength before landfall.

Animated weather footage from windy.com shows the arrival times of strong winds, rain, thunderstorms and other hazards. Most impacts will begin to hit Mexico late Wednesday or into Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) by email for comment.

Why It Matters

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen an active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, and Tropical Storm Dalila in June.

Now, the fifth storm, Tropical Storm Erick, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico and is expected to be the first storm to make landfall.

What to Know

NHC meteorologists anticipate Erick will undergo rapid intensification and reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. As of Tuesday afternoon, Erick had maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph.

A forecast path from the NHC shows the storm making landfall as a hurricane in Oaxaca in the early morning hours on Thursday. Numerous hazards will accompany the storm’s arrival.

Rain

Rainfall potential maps from the NHC show amounts as high as 20 inches along the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Rainfall estimates from windy.com show a similar forecast, with heavy rainfall anticipated across the region over the next three days.

Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms are also likely, with storms drawing nearest to the coastline on Thursday when Erick is expected to make landfall.

Ocean conditions

Dangerous seas are expected as the storm gains strength, with life-threatening rip currents possible along the coast.

Storm surge is also expected to be a hazard.

“Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds,” the NHC said in a forecast. “The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.”

What People Are Saying

NHC said in a forecast regarding a hurricane warning in place: “A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in a report: “There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico. Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding.”

What Happens Next

The storm will continue to bring impacts across Mexico through the end of the week. It is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm by early Friday morning. People in the affected regions should follow local guidance before the storm’s arrival.