New Orleans Saints 2024 Futures Odds: Can Saints Snap Playoff Drought?

The Saints have been swimming in mediocrity ever since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season. It has been three full season, and here is their record year-by-year:

• 2021: 9-8 (head coach Sean Payton’s last year)
• 2022: 7-10
• 2023: 9-8

Unsurprisingly, they did not make the playoffs in any of those three seasons. For 2024, they are going to need to make improvements on the offensive end if they want to improve upon that mediocrity, but the books do not have high hopes.

New Orleans Saints 2024 Futures Odds

After running the division for years under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, times are certainly different in New Orleans. This year, they are the third-favorite to win their division, and not really given much of a chance either.

The book that is the highest on them to win the NFC South is DraftKings, whose +400 odds for New Orleans equate to a win percentage of 20 percent.

The Saints are behind the Falcons and Buccaneers in their division, and in terms of the NFC landscape, they have the fifth-worst odds to win the conference. Only the Cardinals, Giants, Commanders and Panthers have longer odds to win the NFC.

Given how average the Saints have been the last three years, it is hard to argue with this team’s preseason futures odds for 2024, but let’s dive into our thoughts on their chances.

New Orleans Saints 2024 Betting Outlook

For years, we could count on the Saints as having a top offense under Brees and Payton, but that has dramatically changed since Brees retired. Here are their offensive DVOA finishes the past three seasons:

• 2021: 26th
• 2022: 22nd
• 2023: 17th

While last year, QB Derek Carr’s first as a Saint, was New Orleans’ best of the last three, it is still hard to get overly excited about the 17th-best offense in the NFL. There have been some changes to the coaching staff since last season, but it is hard to envision a high ceiling for this offense.

Here are the Saints’ offensive position rankings for 2024, according to PFF:

• Derek Carr Starting QB Ranking: 21st
• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 32nd
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: 24th
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 22nd

To put this succinctly: yikes. The Saints do not have a top-20 unit across the board on offense. No. 21 seems like an appropriate ranking for the 33-year-old Carr, as we know what he is at this point in his career. He is not a QB that will sink your season down the toilet, but he is also not a QB that you can win deep into the post-season with, either.

PFF has his passing grade between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the past five seasons, which is a perfectly average number. If the talent around him was there, you could convince yourself that Carr could win double-digit games, but unfortunately that is not the case with the Saints.

The biggest issue, of course, is that league-worst offensive line ranking. The funny thing is four of the five starters are former first-round picks, but none of the four have been able to live up to their draft pedigree.

The best starting O-lineman they had was right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk, but he will miss the season with an injury. That means Trevor Penning will be the starting RT, a job that he was benched from last year. Elsewhere they have Cesar Ruiz at right guard, who is four seasons into his NFL career and has not graded out as a top-50 guard in any of his four seasons.

It would be hard for any QB to win behind this offensive line, let alone a QB like Carr, who does not have much running ability. Any hope you could have for the Saints offense in 2024 pretty much starts and ends with a mediocre QB behind the worst offensive line in football.

The bummer of it all for New Orleans is that its defense has quietly been very good each of the last three seasons.

New Orleans Saints 2024 Best Bets

Win Total: Under 7.5 (+100) FanDuel

Despite the fact that the Saints have gone over this total in two of the past three years, the under is the way to go.

While their schedule is still relatively easy (fifth-easiest according to SportsBettingDime), it is tougher than it was last year, with the Falcons likely taking a step forward after upgrading at quarterback, and the Buccaneers coming off a season in which they made the playoffs and won a playoff game.

Not to get repetitive, but at the end of the day, a team with an average quarterback and an awful offensive line should be faded, which we are doing here.

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