Steelers 2024 Futures Odds: Quarterback Uncertainty Limits Potential Upside

The classic football adage is “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none,” and that is exactly what the Steelers are trying to avoid in 2024 with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

The Steelers acquired both quarterbacks via trade in the offseason, getting Wilson from the Broncos and Fields from the Bears. The Steelers do have some talent on both sides of the ball, but the reality is they are only going as far as their quarterback will take them, which is the big question mark.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Futures Odds

As you can see, the Steelers are not getting a ton of respect in the futures market. They are a distant last place in terms of their odds to win the AFC North. That makes sense, as they are in a tough division with the Ravens, Bengals and Browns, but still shows what the books think of their chances.

In terms of their odds to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl, they are tied with the Colts with the 11th-best odds, one spot behind the Jaguars.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Betting Outlook

It is rare to see the Steelers with plus odds to make the playoffs and an 8.5 win total over/under, as Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his career as head coach, which started in 2007. He has been to the playoffs 11 times, with seven division titles and one Super Bowl victory.

Let’s dive into our thoughts on Tomlin’s chances to keep Pittsburgh’s winning record streak alive.

Who will start at quarterback for the Steelers in 2024?

As mentioned earlier, the Steelers essentially have a QB competition for who will be the starter between Wilson and Fields. Unfortunately for the Steelers, neither QB has looked great in training camp and the preseason. One of our writers detailed the competition, which is definitely an article worth checking out.

It is a great article, but the summarized version of that is that both QBs have not looked good in training camp. Wilson spent much of the summer nursing a calf injury. He managed to return and play in the Steelers’ most recent preseason game against Buffalo on August 17, but he could not get much going.

Fields, meanwhile, came in and played the entire second half of the 9-3 loss to the Bills, and similarly could not muster up much offense. Right now, it looks as though whoever ends up winning the QB competition will not bless the Steelers with above-average quarterback play.

Elsewhere on offense, it is not as though the Steelers are completely loaded. Here are their unit position rankings according to PFF:

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 9th
• PFF Receiving Unit Ranking: 26th
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 17th

The ninth offensive line ranking is the best the Steelers have had in a long time, so if there is a glimmer of hope for the offense, it rests on the OL.

They spent back-to-back first round picks on tackles in the last two NFL drafts (Broderick Jones at No. 14 in 2023, and Troy Fautanu at No. 20 in 2024), and also invested a second-round pick in this year’s draft on center Zach Frazier.

Unfortunately, that is where the positivity with the Steelers offense ends, as they do not grade out well at running back or receiver. They traded away Diontae Johnson to the Panthers in the offseason, so they are left with George Pickens and Roman Wilson as their top two wide receiver options. Pickens is flashy but not a consistent performer, while Wilson is a third-round rookie, so expectations should be tempered.

Tight end Pat Freiermuth is a solid but unspectacular weapon, while running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris form a decent duo, but Warren is out for the next couple weeks with a hamstring injury. Soft-tissue injuries are always scary, as they can linger for the entire season.

Can Pittsburgh’s defense build on last year’s success?

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: 8th
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: 13th
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: 23rd

Last year, the Steelers had the sixth-best defense according to DVOA, with the seventh-best passing defense specifically. It was an improvement on 2022, when they had the 12th-best defensive DVOA, so there is legitimate hope that the Steelers could have a top-five unit in 2023.

At defensive line, they have arguably the best pass rusher in the league in T.J. Watt, but it is not a one-man show at DL. Alex Highsmith rushes from the other side of Watt, and he is fantastic in his own right. He finished 2023 with a 90.3 PFF grade, which was the 10th-best of all edge rushers. For context, Watt finished with a 91.9 grade (fifth-best).

If the Steelers are going to have a top-five defense it will need to come on the heels of those two, but they have plenty of other talent on D. They made a big splash in the offseason, signing Patrick Queen at linebacker from the Ravens. He is coming off the best year of his career and has not even turned 25 yet.

The secondary is where the Steelers have the biggest question mark. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick seemingly alternates years in which he plays well, posting a below-average grade in 2021, an extremely above-average one in 2022, and then last year he was merely average. He will need to go back to his 2022 form for the Steelers to take the next step on defense.

At cornerback, there are reasons to believe in Joey Porter Jr., who was a typical rookie last year in that he took his lumps but made splash plays to entice you about his future potential. If these two can perform at a high level in 2024, then the Steelers could have a top-10 secondary overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Best Bets

Win Total: Under 8.5 Games (-144) FanDuel

Despite the fact that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record and this under would give the Steelers a losing record, this is still the way to go here. After all, there is a reason why the books are heavily favoring the under with these odds.

For starters, the Steelers play in arguably the toughest division in football, and SharpFootballAnalysis has the Steelers with the hardest schedule in the league.

This makes sense, as six games against the Ravens, Bengals and Browns is already a gauntlet, and then the rest of their schedule features games against the Falcons, Jets, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs.

The Steelers have historically been the type of team to play up to their competition, but this is a daunting slate, and Pittsburgh also has the habit of playing down to its competition as well. A year ago, for example, the Steelers lost to a pair of 4-13 teams, the Cardinals and the Patriots.

The under is the play here.

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