Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Futures Odds: Can Tampa Return to Playoffs?

Coming off an up-and-down season in QB Baker Mayfield’s first year in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are an intriguing playoff longshot in 2024.

Will they look like the team that won five of their last six games of the 2023 regular season, knocked off the Eagles in the playoffs, and then gave Detroit all it could handle in a close loss in the Divisional Round?

Or will this year’s Buccaneers team revert to the form that NFL fans saw from late September through late November of 2023, when Tampa lost seven of nine games to drop to 4-7 following a 2-0 start?

Oddsmakers, who project the Bucs to win around eight games and struggle to compete with the Falcons in the NFC South, expect a step back from Mayfield and Co.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Futures Odds

It’s understandable that Tampa Bay is not seen as a threat to win the Super Bowl or the NFC.

We’ll have more on the wide-open NFC South next week, but odds like +325 at bet365 (implied probability: 23.5 percent) are a bit puzzling, even after a good offseason by the Falcons, who spent big on Kirk Cousins to upgrade their biggest position of need.

Looking at the Falcons’ roster, their status as the favorites is defensible, but Atlanta being -130 (bet365) to win this division shows a lack of respect to not only the Bucs, but also the Saints.

Are oddsmakers sleeping on the back-to-back-to-back (2021, 2022* and 2023) NFC South champs?

*The Bucs’ 2022 NFC South banner doesn’t have to mention it, but it should be noted that their record that year was just 8-9.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Betting Outlook

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin lead underrated offense

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: No. 17
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: No. 11
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: No. 20

The headliners of this offense are its top pass-catchers: 31-year-old Mike Evans and 28-year-old Chris Godwin.

Both were prolific in ’23, as Evans reached the Pro Bowl after piling up 79 catches, 1,255 yards receiving and 13 TDs while averaging 15.9 yards per catch. Godwin’s numbers last year weren’t as flashy as Evans’, but he quietly went over 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

Thanks in large part to Evans’ monster effort, Mayfield enjoyed a career year in 2023 after entering the season battling Kyle Trask for the starting job. A year later, Mayfield is now on a three-year contract worth up to $115 million.

Last year, he posted career-highs in yards passing (4,044), completion percentage (64.3) and passing touchdowns (28) while largely avoiding turnovers. It’s worth noting that he posted those numbers without adependable running game. His 10 picks sounds like a substantial number at first glance, but that many INTs on 566 passing attempts translated to a respectable interception rate of 1.8 percent.

The biggest question in 2024 is whether the Bucs can get better at running the football. Third-year back Rachaad White has been a reliable receiver out of the backfield, but he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per carry on 401 attempts the past two years. As a whole, the Bucs finished dead-last in the NFL last year in both total rushing yards and yards per attempt.

Tampa’s young O-line should be better this year. That’s because star left tackle Tristan Wirfs, second-year right guard Cody Mauch and third-year right tackle Luke Goedeke all figure to improve with more experience (though Wirfs, 25, is already among the league’s best at his position).

First-round rookie Graham Barton won the starting center job in training camp, and fourth-round rookie RB Bucky Irving comes to Tampa Bay after a dominant career at Oregon. He’ll have a chance to overtake White as Tampa’s primary ball-carrier if he can find success early this season.

This offense, which lost 2023 OC Dave Canales to the Panthers this offseason, doesn’t necessarily profile as one of the best in the league. There are few holes, though, and good reason to expect an improved rushing attack for an O that gained over 400 yards of offense in both of its playoff games a year ago.

Will Todd Bowles’ defense remain above-average?

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 20
• PFF Linebacker Ranking: No. 23
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: No. 12

The Buccaneers have benefited in recent years from running the same defense since 2019. That’s when Tampa hired now-head coach Todd Bowles as defensive coordinator following his four-year stint as head coach of the Jets.

Bowles, who was promoted from Bucs defensive coordinator to head coach in 2022, and Bucs co-DCs Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers return several promising young players in the front seven. That group includes OLBs YaYa Diaby (who recorded 7.5 sacks a rookie last year) and 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, as well as 2023 first-rounder Calijah Kancey and veteran nosetackle Vita Vea.

The secondary will be anchored by Antoine Winfield Jr., who was in the mix for NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2023.

The Bucs have questions at inside linebacker, where Lavonte David is not the player he was earlier in his career as he enters Year 13 in the NFL. Their other projected starter at inside linebacker, K.J. Britt, has started just four games since Tampa drafted him in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Winfield Jr. and the solid defensive coaching staff give the Tampa defense a decent floor, but it will need to be better than that to make a deep playoff run.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Best Bets

• Bucs to win NFC South (best odds: +325 at bet365)
• Bucs to make playoffs: yes (best odds: +150 at bet365, Caesars)

I’m bullish on Tampa Bay once again flying under the radar and finding a way into the playoffs.

Yes, it’s possible Cousins is everything Atlanta hopes he will be this season coming off a torn Achilles at age 36, which would make it hard to keep pace with the Falcons.

Still, there’s a ton of value on Tampa Bay to win the NFC South at longer than 3-to-1 odds.

At even money or minus-odds, “Bucs to make the playoffs” wouldn’t look too tempting, but +150 is a great price on this team returning to the playoffs given the high floor under Bowles.

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