Colts Futures Odds: Indy’s Hopes Hinge on Health of QB Anthony Richardson

The Colts are in an interesting spot heading into the 2024 season. They have legitimate hope with a young QB who flashed in 2024, but we did not see enough of Anthony Richardson to really know what he is.

Even with Richardson missing most of the season, the Colts were still one game away from making the playoffs in 2023 with journeyman Gardner Minshew starting most of the season.

So, if Richardson can make a leap in his second season, the Colts could make a run, but he has such little experience — even going back to his college days — that it is a complete unknown what we are going to see from him this year.

The Colts enter the 2024 season with plenty of intrigue given the wide range of outcomes of what they could be.

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Futures Odds

Here is where this team stands in the futures markets:

The Colts did manage to win nine games last year without Richardson for most of the year, but books are not expecting a ton of improvement this year, with Indy’s win total over/under set at 8.5.

Oddsmakers also give the Colts plus-odds to make the playoffs, which is another way of saying they do not think the Colts are going to the postseason in 2024.

As for their standing in the AFC as a whole, the Colts have the 12th-best odds to win the AFC, one spot behind the Jaguars. They are also the third-favorite to win the AFC South, behind the Texans and Jaguars.

Let’s dive right into our thoughts on whether the Colts have a chance to make a run to the playoffs and possibly win the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Betting Outlook

The Colts are a fascinating team to dive into.

On offense, QB Anthony Richardson was electric when he did play in 2023, but he played in four games and left two of them early due to injury. His last medical issue of the 2023 season was a shoulder injury that cost him the rest of the season.

Defensively, the 2023 Colts defense was put in a tough spot due to the offense playing at the fastest pace in the league, which led to more possessions to defend, but they were also just not a good defense in general.

This year, the Colts are a team that could win 10-plus games but also fail to win five.

Can QB Anthony Richardson stay on the field?

Obviously performing at a high level is important for Richardson, but the first thing he needs to do is figure out how to stay on the field. Due to his running and physical nature, he is at a higher risk to get injured than a QB that stays in the pocket more. The Colts signed 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco as Richardson’s backup this offseason.

As mentioned previously, he played in only four games last year. In Week 2, he suffered a concussion that kept him out for one week, and he suffered a separated shoulder in Week 5 that took him out for the year. He also suffered an ankle injury in Week 1, but managed to return to the field in Week 2.

Reps were already important for Richardson, as he came into the NFL with a lack of playing time and pass attempts in his college career at Florida, so losing time his rookie year was a real setback. Of course, when he did play, he was electric. He ended the season with four rushing touchdowns in roughly 10 quarters of action, adding in three more touchdowns through the air.

Elsewhere, the Colts do have some talent on offense for Richardson to work with:

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 3rd
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: 22nd
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 7th

The headliner here is the offensive line ranking. PFF rates the Colts tackle duo of Bernhard Raimann at LT and Braden Smith at RT as one of the best in the league. Each of them were in the top seven in terms of the highest-graded offensive tackles last year. Indianapolis also returns all five starters up front, which always helps.

Despite only being ranked No. 22 by PFF, the Colts do possess some upside here and could easily vault themselves into the top 10 this year. Michael Pittman Jr. was excellent last year, earning himself a new contract in the offseason. After Pittman Jr, the Colts are have second-year WR Josh Downs, who was solid out of the slot last year, and they added rookie Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL draft as a speed-threat and vertical field-stretcher.

At the RB position, the Colts have a potential superstar in Jonathan Taylor. He led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in 2021, but has not played a full season since. The 2021 campaign was only his second year in the NFL, but he spent 2022 dealing with injuries, and missed time last year holding out for a new contract.

He is primed for a big year now that he is healthy and signed to a new deal, and it would not be a surprise if he ended 2024 similar to how he performed in 2021.

Offensively, there are a lot of reasons to believe in the Colts. We have already touched on the potential of Richardson, and head coach Shane Steichen showed a lot of creativity with his play-calling in his first year as an NFL head coach last year. The Colts finished the year with the 13th-best offense according to DVOA, which is impressive when you remember that Minshew started 13 games.

Unfortunately we cannot predict injuries, but if Richardson can stay on the field, the Colts could legitimately end the season with a top-five offense. Of course, the other side of that coin is Richardson’s lack of experience possibly coming back to bite him over a large sample size. The possibility of him failing to take the next step gives the Colts wide variance on how good their offense could be this year.

Can Colts be “above-average” on defense?

The Colts on the whole are going to sink or swim on the success of their offense, as they are not built to have a shutdown defense. So, all they can realistically hope for is to have an above-average defense, which would be considered a win.

Last year they, were not quite able to accomplish that, with the 20th-ranked defense and the 25th-ranked passing defense, according to DVOA. They are unfortunately just not talented enough to be a top defensive unit.

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: 7th
• PFF Linebacker Ranking: 26th
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: 28th

The seventh-ranked defensive line unit is solid, but even that group is not led by a game-changing, superstar pass rusher. DeForest Buckner is the best player on the line, but he is not someone who can wreck a game by himself. First round pick Laiatu Latu has potential, but it would be unrealistic to expect much from him in year one. Pass rushers take some time to develop.

Outside of the defensive line, the Colts defense does not have much to offer. Their starting linebackers are Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed, who are better run defenders than they are in coverage, which is not what you want at that position in 2024. Unfortunately for Indy, the best LBs in the league are generally at their best in coverage.

In the secondary they have Kenny Moore II, who is one of the best slot cornerbacks in NFL, but their outside corners leave a lot to be desired. Having a good slot CB is important, but the outside is more important, and that is where the Colts are weak.

If they can get a leap from second-year CB JuJu Brents, who had a decent rookie season, then they might have something to work with, but they are still lacking talent overall. Again, the aim for the Colts defensively is not to have one of the best defenses in the league, but merely get into the top half.

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Best Bets

• Win Total: Over 8.5 Games (-105) FanDuel
• Sprinkle on Colts to Win AFC South (+310) FanDuel

Due to the ceiling the Colts have if Richardson can stay on the field, they are a good bet to exceed their over/under of 8.5, and they are definitely worth a small wager to win the division at the high odds that are currently available.

The Texans are the favorite to win the division and rightfully so, but let’s not lose sight of what the Colts were able to do with Minshew at the helm. No disrespect to Minshew, but we know who he is at this point: a good backup but generally not someone that should be a team’s starting quarterback.

The Colts won nine games last year, which would have cashed this over, and had they pulled out their Week 18 showdown against the Texans, they would have won the division and made the playoffs. There is absolutely uncertainty here, but “Colts to win the AFC South” is worth a shot at +310.

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