Houston Texans 2024 Futures Odds: CJ Stroud, Texans Contenders in Deep AFC

The biggest surprise of the 2023 NFL season, the Houston Texans, enter the upcoming campaign with expectations that are night-and-day different than they were this time last year.

Last year, then-rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, QB CJ Stroud and DE Will Anderson Jr. nearly swept the NFL Coach of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, but Ryans narrowly lost out on COTY to Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski.

Could Ryans get his COTY due a year late?

The Texans, who not only won a playoff game as a home underdog a year ago, but did so in dominant fashion (with a 45-14 Wild Card win over Cleveland), are expected to be one of the best teams in the league in 2024 after a promising offseason.

Houston Texans 2024 Futures Odds

Oddsmakers don’t quite put Houston in the “Super Bowl 59 favorite” category.

Last year’s AFC and NFC champs, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, enter the 2024 season in a class of their own as far as futures odds go.

After those two, though, the Texans are among several other teams with the next-shortest odds to capture the Lombardi Trophy in 2024-25.

In addition to Houston, other squads in oddsmakers’ “second tier” include the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.

Houston Texans 2024 Betting Outlook

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: No. 22
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: No. 5
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: No. 23

What does Stroud have up his sleeve in Year 2?

It’s hard not to be bullish on both the short- and long-term future of this offense — and this team as a whole — after Stroud’s historic rookie season. He was so impressive in 2023 that a franchise that went 11-38-1 from 2020-22 now looks as well-positioned for the rest of this decade as any team in the league.

A big reason for that is what the Texans did this offseason.

In addition to Stroud, who produced the third-best season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history in terms of both passing yards (4,108) and passer rating (100.8), Houston’s offense boasts young talent at wide receiver in Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Those two, plus reliable tight end Dalton Schultz and veteran offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs, should give the Texans one of the best passing attacks in the league.

They will need an offensive line that struggled in both the running game and in pass-pro to improve in 2024. However, as long as the Houston O-line is serviceable this year, the running game should improve following a trade for 28-year-old former Bengal RB Joe Mixon back in March.

Can DeMeco Ryans improve Houston’s young defense?

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 10
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: No. 21
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: No. 18

Stroud was sensational a year ago, but he was not the only outstanding rookie on this roster. One pick after they selected CJ Stroud at No. 2 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Texans took Anderson.

Like Stroud, Anderson more than lived up to expectations. He finished 2023 with seven sacks, 22 QB hits and 10 tackles for loss to earn Pro Bowl and AP Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.

This year, with Anderson opposite yet another high-profile offseason acquisition, former Vikings star pass rusher Danielle Hunter, the Texans should once again have a potent pass rush.

The young Houston defense finished 2023 ranked No. 16 in defensive DVOA, and it will likely be improved this season in the second year under Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke.

Returning starting linebackers Christian Harris and Henry To’oTo’o are both just 23 years old, and the Texans added former 49ers and Titans LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is coming off 163-tackle season a year ago, in free agency.

The secondary boasts a promising young corner in Derek Stingley Jr. as well as hard-hitting safety Jalen Pitre. The latter is yet another young player who has already gotten a ton of playing time for Houston in his first two years in the league.

The Texans D lack stars outside of Anderson and Hunter up front, but their athleticism across the board will create a ton of headaches for opposing offenses as long as the pass rush is as good as advertised.

Houston Texans 2024 Best Bet

Texans to win AFC South (best odds: +105 at FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365)

It will be interesting to see how a team this young handles being the hunted, but it’s hard to doubt a squad with a QB like Stroud and a coach like Ryans.

The Texans’ 2024 slate — which is the fifth-most difficult in the NFL, according to SportsBettingDime’s Matt McEwan — will make it challenging for them to reach 10 wins again.

Nevertheless, they’re a good bet to repeat as AFC South champs, albeit at nearly-even odds.

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