Tennessee Titans 2024 Futures Odds: All Eyes on QB Will Levis

This could almost be copied and pasted for the entire AFC South, but the Titans find themselves in a position with a young quarterback where their season has a high variance. This year, they could easily find themselves in last place in the division or first, depending on the development of second-year QB Will Levis.

It is interesting that three of the four teams in the AFC South have second-year QBs starting for them: C.J. Stroud for the Texans, Anthony Richardson for the Colts, and Will Levis for the Titans.

While the Texans are the favorite, you could make a reasonable argument for any of the four teams to win the division, including these Titans. Here is how they are being viewed by the oddsmakers.

Tennessee Titans 2024 Futures Odds

Based on what the books think, the Titans are a distant fourth in their division. The Texans are the favorite, with the Jaguars and Colts as second and third, respectively, but their odds are close together. For reference, here is how FanDuel prices the AFC South division winner odds:

• Texans: +105
• Jaguars: +270
• Colts: +310
• Titans: +950

As you can see, the books are pricing the Titans significantly behind the Jags and Colts. Reasonable or not, that is how they are viewed in the minds of the sportsbooks.

The Titans are also given the third-longest odds to win the AFC. Only the Broncos and the Patriots have longer odds than the Titans to win this conference. Let’s dive into our thoughts on the Titans and give out our best advice on how to bet this mystery team.

Tennessee Titans 2024 Betting Outlook

The Titans join the Colts as a team that holds a wide variance of what they could be in 2024. Of course, in both situations we have uncertainty at quarterback.

Last year, Levis flashed in his limited snaps during his rookie season, but also showed inconsistency. The Titans also have a new coaching staff, as Brian Callahan takes over for Mike Vrabel as head coach.

Defensively, the Titans do have legitimate talent, but the new coaching staff on defense makes it hard to really know what to expect. Let’s start with the offense.

New offense and young QB — what to expect?

The Titans might have more unknowns than any other team in the NFL when it comes to their offense. We’ll get to the quarterback, but their offensive system as a whole could not be more different from what we’ve seen from the Titans over the past couple years.

Mike Vrabel took over as the Titans head coach in 2018 and coached through last season. Under Vrabel, the Titans were a run-first team that was led by running back Derrick Henry, who signed with Baltimore in free agency. Now, Vrabel is gone, replaced by former Bengals offensive coordinator Callahan.

The Bengals were among the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL under Callahan and QB Joe Burrow. The Titans will have their usual uniforms this year, so they will look the same in that regard, but other than that, there will be no offensive similarities between the Vrabel-led Titans and the Callahan-led Titans.

Now talking about the quarterback, opinions vary on Levis. PFF has him as the 28th-ranked starting QB heading into the 2024 season, which feels like an accurate placement for him.

He is absolutely capable of making highlight-worthy throws, but if he wants to become a winning QB, he will need to play with more consistency. According to PFF, he had close to an equal number of big-time throws (16) and turnover-worthy plays (14) as a rookie.

The issue with Levis is he does not handle pressure well, and that becomes a huge issue as the Titans have among the worst offensive lines in the league. Here are Tennessee’s PFF rankings for the OL, along with the skill positions.

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 30th
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: 12th
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 15th

If there is one thing that is going to hold this offense back, it is going to be that 30th-rated offensive line. It is almost impossible to win with a bad OL in general, as there is almost no example of a team winning big with a poor offensive line. The best example of an exception that we have is the Bengals back in 2021, but they fell short in the Super Bowl almost solely due to their offensive line’s poor play. Also, Levis is not Burrow, and the Titans do not have a Ja’Marr Chase, either.

If PFF is accurate and the Titans indeed have the third-worst offensive line this year, that would actually be an improvement on last year, when the Titans had legitimately the worst OL in the league. They do have some young talent, as they took an OL in the first round of each the previous two NFL drafts (OT Peter Skoronski at No. 11 in 2023 and OT J.C. Latham at No. 7 in 2024). Of course, the unit still has a long ways to go before it can even be considered average.

At the skill positions, it is unfortunate for this team that the year is 2024 as opposed to 2019, as the Titans have a lot of high-profile names at the tail end of their careers. At wide receiver, they have DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and at running back, they have Tony Pollard. All four are solid veterans, but it is to be determined how much they have left in the tank.

Can Titans Survive Lack of Depth on Defense?

Defensively, the Titans actually have a decent amount of big names that might lead you to believe their defense is better than it actually is. At defensive line, they have superstar Jeffery Simmons, and at cornerback they have L’Jarius Sneed, who they acquired via trade with the Chiefs in the offseason, but that is mostly it.

Here is how PFF views the Titans’ defensive units:

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: 21st
• PFF Linebacker Unit Ranking: 27th
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: 15th

As you can see, despite the big names, the Titans do not have an above-average unit at any of the three levels of the defense.

At defensive line, outside of Simmons, they have two average players on the outside in Arden Key and Harold Landry, but neither of them inspire fear in their opponents. If this group is going to take a step forward, it is going to be because rookie defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat shows out, but that is unlikely to happen for a first-year player at that position.

The Titans do have a decent trio of cornerbacks, as Sneed joins Roger McCreary, who took a leap in his second year, and they also have former Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie. The latter has been a good player in his career, but injuries have troubled him over the past couple years.

At linebacker, the Titans are taking a chance on former first-round pick Kenneth Murray, who was brought over in free agency after the Chargers declined his fifth-year option. It is always possible that a change of scenery helps Murray, but he has been a below-average player in his career thus far.

Overall, new Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson does have some talent to work with, but he will need some unheralded players to step up if the Titans want to have a difference-making defense.

Tennessee Titans 2024 Best Bets

Win Total: Under 6.5 Games (-128) FanDuel

While there is some value on the Titans to win the division just based on the insane price at +1000 odds, when forced to make a decision on whether to back or fade the Titans, the better play is to fade them.

There is always the chance that this looks silly if Levis is actually able to show out in his second season, but a QB that struggles with accuracy and pressure playing behind an offensive line that PFF rates as the third-worst in the NFL will be tough to overcome.

Generally, betting against teams with bad offensive lines is going to be a winning bet, and that is what we are going to be doing here.

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