How Kamala Harris’ Chances of Winning Swing States Have Changed in a Month

Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in five swing states, having wiped out or narrowed his advantage, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker.

Before Harris entered the race, Trump held leads over President Joe Biden in national polls and in 6 of the 7 key battleground states, according to the tracker.

Since Harris took the reins as the Democratic nominee, the party has seen a reversal of fate in polling. Harris currently leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, while the two are tied in North Carolina. Trump remains ahead of Harris in Georgia, according to the tracker.

Harris’ lead over Trump is narrowest in Nevada, where she holds just a 0.1 percent lead with 44.6 percent of the vote in the tracker, though a recent poll from Focaldata, conducted between August 6 and August 16 showed that the vice president has a 5-point lead among likely voters when third party candidates are included in the survey. In a head-to-head matchup, she is up by 7 points.

The lead in the poll and the tracker represents a significant change in the Democrats’ prospects in the state, with polls conducted in the days after Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 showing that Trump was between ahead by between 1 and 5 points, and the polling conducted before Biden dropped out showed he was trailing by between 2 and 10 points.

Some recent polls still show Trump with the lead in Nevada. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between August 12 and August 15 had Trump ahead by 2 points among likely voters.

Nevada has voted for the Democrat in the last four presidential elections.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona, Harris holds leads of between 0.8 points and 3.3 points over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight tracker. Polling in all of those states other than Wisconsin showed Trump with the lead in the days before and after Biden dropped out.

A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll in Pennsylvania conducted between July 22 and July 24 put Trump 4 points ahead of Harris among likely voters. Fast forward to August 15, and a poll by the same company showed Harris with a 2-point lead over her opponent.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 after Trump had flipped it red for the first time in nearly more than two decades in 2016.

In North Carolina and Georgia, both of which have shown Trump narrowly leading Harris since she entered the race, the vice president has narrowed Trump’s margins. In North Carolina, the two candidates are now neck and neck in the tracker with Trump at 45.6 percent and Harris as 45.5 percent. Trump was leading Harris by 1 point on August 12 and polls conducted in the days after Biden ended his reelection campaign showed him up by as much as 3 points ahead.

North Carolina has not voted for a Democratic candidate for president since former President Barack Obama in 2008. But, the state has elected Democratic governors in seven of the last eight gubernatorial contests.

In Georgia, Trump leads Harris by 1 point in the tracker after polls conducted between July 22 and July 24 suggested he was up by as much as 5 points. In a poll published by Insider Advantage on July 16, Trump held a 10-point lead among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup with Harris.

Biden flipped Georgia blue in 2020 after it had gone for the Republican in the previous six elections.

Since the Harris campaign launched, polls in the seven battleground states have shown some volatility with different polling showing each candidate with leads.

A recent poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between August 12 and August 15 showed Harris leading Trump by between 2 points and 4 points in two swing states—Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump and Harris were tied on 46 percent, while in the four other swing states, Trump was leading Harris by between 1 point and 3 points.

Meanwhile, a poll released on Tuesday by Navigator Research showed Harris without the lead in any of the swing states, with the two candidates tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while she was behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll did not include Georgia.

A YouGov/CBS poll from August 2 showed neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with the two candidates in an overall deadlock.

Success in the swing states is pivotal to winning the election. Harris leads in a number of national polls, but could win the popular vote and lose the election if the key states back Trump.