Browns-Cowboys Betting Pick: Back Road Underdog Cowboys on Sunday

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Cowboys vs. Browns Betting Preview

The interesting part of this game is that, despite these teams making the playoffs last year, there is a bit of change and unknown on both sides.

The Cowboys have had a top-five defense according to DVOA for the past three seasons, but they enter 2024 with a new defensive coordinator. Dan Quinn left Dallas to take over as head coach of the Commanders, while Dallas replaced him with a similar old, veteran/curmudgeonly coach in Mike Zimmer.

Zimmer has been out of football for the past two years, but he was the head coach of the Vikings for years, and to his credit, he has always had a top defense.

The Browns, meanwhile, went through QB after QB last year once Deshaun Watson went down for good with a shoulder injury, but found magic in Joe Flacco. Flacco signed with the Browns late in the year, and he led a 4-0 December for Cleveland.

Flacco is gone, and the Browns are going back to Watson as their starting QB, but the reality is Watson has been a below-average-to-horrible QB since being traded over to the Browns ahead of the 2022 season.

He has a 58.7 passing grade over the past two seasons with the Browns, which ranks 53rd among all qualified passers. Heading into 2024, PFF has him as the 23rd-ranked QB heading into the season. It is tough to see a scenario where Watson is able to put up a bunch of points against this Cowboys defense, even with a new DC.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense figures to be excellent once again in 2024. Cleveland ended last year with the second-best defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and it returns 2023 DPoY Miles Garrett and DC Jim Schwartz, so this should continue to be a top unit in 2024.

On offense, the Cowboys dealt with offseason drama surrounding superstar WR CeeDee Lamb and his contract, but they recently were able to come to a contract agreement, squashing that issue.

The Cowboys offense was a little bit of Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde last year, as they had 10 separate games in which they scored 30-plus points, including five games with 40-plus points, but against good defenses, they struggled.

The worst regular-season performance of the year was a 42-10 trouncing against the 49ers, and they also had a 10-point performance against the Bills in which they only gained 195 total yards.

Cowboys vs. Browns Prediction

This is a matchup where we are expecting both defenses to show out. Even with the unknown of the Cowboys defense under a new DC, there is enough history of success from Zimmer-led defenses that the ‘Boys should once again have a top defensive unit.

In terms of a winner, the guess would be the Cowboys in a minor upset, as it is hard to put faith in Watson to get much done on offense.

Despite the Cowboys’ struggles against top defenses in 2023, Prescott garners more trust in this matchup than Watson.

Cowboys vs. Browns Best Bets

• Cowboys ML (+120) DraftKings
• Game Total Under 41 (-110) Caesars

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